Why did they say this was going to be a very busy hurricane season, when it's not?

Question

I was just wondering. Remember how they were saying this was going to be a really really busy hurricane season? Well, there has not been a single hurricane yet anywhere near our coast. I wonder why? Could they be wrong? Or maybe it's just not the time yet? Logically, from what they were forcasting, there would have to be a hurricane once a week to catch up with all the number they were promising. Just a thought....

Answer 1

1) it's not over yet
2) "they" hope ppl will go out an buy bunches of supplies just in case, it helps boost the economy
3) it's not an exact science
4) maybe "they" needed some funding

Answer 2

Like the others are saying you are speaking way too soon and climatological we are starting to get into the pike of the season starting next month. There are 2 pikes in the season. One around Sept 10th and another in mid Oct. We are not even 2 months into the season that last till Nov. 30th. We have had 2 storms formed and as you said none were hurricanes (THANK GOD).
Here is some reasons why we have not had many storms yet.
1) The ocean waters take longer to warm then the atmosphere.
2) There has been storm upper level shear from the Southwest in the Caribbean sea to prevent some storm formation.
Hope this helps and keep you eye on the sky and please be careful if one comes your way because the Gulf is warmer then what is was last year a month or so ago. Please don't let your guard down. We still have a LLLLLLLOOOOOOONNNNNNGGGGGGG way to go!!!

Answer 3

On opening day of hurricane season, there was a tropical storm brewing, and there is still plenty of time left. Tropical effects have already caused severe flooding in parts of the country, so I wonder where you live. They ran out of hurricane names on the list last year and had to start using letters of the Greek alphabet to designate the storms. You don't always get hurricanes like Katrina and Rita. Sometimes they are just small "named" storms that don't get the headlines, but they still count. I would actually rather have a dozen small tropical storms than a single category 3 hurricane, but you can't pick them out like you would a watermelon, you have to take what comes.

Answer 4

Lots of talk out there about the forecast for 15+ named storms this season but only 2 so far. Realize that in the very damaging year of 2004 we didn't have a named storm until Aug. 1 which was followed by a record month of activity & 5 named storms hitting Florida in the subsequent 6-7 weeks including the first Cat. 4 U.S. ("Charley") landfall since "Andrew" in 1992. Besides still being early in the season, several reasons for the relatively slow start:
(1) Shear -- unseasonably strong much of June & July which isn't conducive to tropical development. Even "Alberto" & "Beryl" developed in a relatively high shear environment keeping strenthening at a relative minimum.
(2) Dry Mid & Upper Level Air -- Water vapor satellite imagery shows moisture in the mid & upper levels of the atmosphere -- dark being dry & white or gray being more moist. See this National Hurricane Center sight for a variety of water vapor images & loops: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml ......Most of the last couple of months have been characterized by unseasonably dry air over much of the Atlantic Basin -- too dry to support tropical cyclones. There are some very recent signs of a possible change in this dry air pattern in the coming weeks. It's interesting to note that dry mid & upper level air dominated much of the Central & -- at times -- Eastern Atlantic last season when there were 28 storms! What transpired was that waves which came off the coast of Africa failed to develop amongst the dry air but then organized once on the other side of the dry air over the Western Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Point is don't let poor conditions in one part of the Basin fool you regarding possible development on down the line when conditions become better. The key usually is to see if you can track the wave & watch how it behaves once it gets into a more favorable environment AND to observe how systems & patterns are evolving "upstream" of the wave. This all helps in trying to figure out if there's some potential for future development.
(3) Saharan dust. Huge dust clouds from Africa are often times blown westward in the tradewinds across the Atlantic...sometimes even reaching Florida. The dust plumes or clouds have a tendency to suppress most tropical cyclone development & this season so far has been no exception. A strong surface high pressure has been prevalent over the Northeast Atlantic & its clockwise winds have been blowing Saharan dust well to the west over the Atlantic. In fact, there's a huge plume of dust right now as far as about half-way between the coast of Africa & the Lesser Antilles. The University of Wisconsin has a great website that makes it easy to track Saharan dust & water vapor: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html

Answer 5

This hurricane season has just begun
it doesnt kick in until August
The peak is during Late August and
Early September

Answer 6

I think that hurricanes are caused by anti matter like meteors.Where does all this power in the hurricane come from?Study the television weather maps to see the evidence of meteors.Remember it is called meteorology.

Answer 7

I kno rite..Lyk if u live in Florida there would already be lyk 4 hurricans at he least and lyk 6 more coming.

Answer 8

hurricane season don't end till November

Answer 9

Because the weather people don't know what they are talking about.

Answer 10

Don't speak too soon, Dana.