Scientific predictions 1975-1980 Ice Age 1995-2006 Global Warming what will 2020-2025 bring ?

Question

oh yes ice age there was even a theory around (about 1986 ?) that we were preventing the ice age through our activity (the best of that era(70's-80's) was the plan to spread carbon dust on the poles to absorb more solar radiation ) hey look it up yourself ain't science fun (if you look at the history of the earth we ARE due for an ice age maybe we did ...)

Answer 1

The reality is that we don't understand climate change enough to make a reliable long term predictions. Climate change is a complicated system since there are many factors involved (wind directions, marine currents, biological activity, human activity, volcanic activity, astronomic influences).

We now know that we are experiencing global warming caused mostly by human activity as it has been said. But we don't know what is going to happen in the long term. Are marine organisms going to take out the excess CO2? How are they going to adapt to a hotter environment? This is a dramatic change and we really don't know what is going to happen.

But you are right, based on astronomic variations (long term variation of the position of the earth respect to the sun, the wobble of the rotational axis, etc.) We are due for a new ice age and if we have the right trigger that just may happen.

A huge volcanic eruption, (like the Yellowstone supervolcano), which is also overdue, may induce a new ice age since the ash will block the sun light enough to cool the earth of for some years.

A meteoritic impact, besides the initial catastrophic event will also cool off the earth, quite significantly and dramatically.

Just a few scientist think that an equilibrium between the natural tendency of a new ice age and the man induced global warming can be achieved. The most likely scenario is that one tendency will overpass the other.

So for a short term prediction expect global warming. But a catastrophic event like the eruption of a supervolcano or a meteoritic impact can induce a new ice age.

The new ice age will start with cooler summers, cool enough that the snow will not completely melt and thus reflecting more light back to space creating an albedo effect.

But as you can see, this is not what it is going on, it is quite the opposite.

I think a new ice age would be harder to handle for human civilization.

About global warming we do know that glacials will melt and the sea level will rise causing less land surface for man to live and grow food, more floods, etc. But we really don't know the full impact of global warming will have on nature.

Answer 2

The big difference between the 70s theory is a few people believed it. At that time, other scientists had already noticed the increasing CO2 and started talking about global warming, look that up.

This models is universally accepted by all mainstream scientists that don't get paid by Big Energy. Nowhere will you find a peer-reviewed journal article refuting human influence on impending global warming, except by an Exxon underling.
CO2 is 30% higher than it has been for 650,000 years. Methane is 130% greater. These are two of the main pollutants humans put into the atmosphere in excess, and they are two of the primary greenhouse gases.

Look at the 'hockeystick', which shows a dramatic warming since 1950 after a fairly stable climate for 1000 years. In fact, the 10 hottest years in recorded history have all happened since 1990, with 2005 being the hottest, and 2006 is shaping up to maybe break that record.
(see links below)

How's that for proof of man's fault in this? There is ample proof, any real scientist will tell you that.

There has NEVER been an article doubting man's influence on global warming published in a peer-reviewed journal. A recent study of almost 1000 proved that.

Yes, the earth naturally heats and cools, but the rate and amount we are warming now is unprecedented in the recent geologic past. We are doing this, and we must stop it. This is not some political statement or rhetoric. This is science trying to educate a crass, ignorant public of the damage they are doing. The magnitude of temperature increase ALREADY is about 10x that of the 'little ice age' of the middle ages, and rate and amount are only going up.

Just to be clear, glacial and interglacial cycles are mainly controlled by astronomical fluctuations, but we have a detailed record of the last 7 cycles, and what the climate and CO2 is doing now is way different and extreme. The rate of increase is much higher than in the past AND the value itself is much higher.

HI CO2:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4467420.stm
HOCKEY STICK:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5109188.stm
General climate stuff:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3897061.stm

Answer 3

I am voting for the theory of global temperature stability.

Around 2020, the "scientific concesus" will be that, in fact, the temperature of the earth is inherantly self correcting and stable, and neither man, nor earth, nor sun above can do much about it. This will require drastically changing current ideas about past ice ages and warm eras.

Answer 4

There was no scientific consensus about the direction of the earth's temperature in the 1970's, or at any other time prior to the 1990's.

There is now.

Answer 5

what's the question? I don't know what 2020 will bring...I'm not a scientist. And anyways, scientists make predictions on the future based on what they know today...otherwise, if they didn't, we wouldn't have scientists!

Answer 6

the end of the earth

Answer 7

certain hell.