The Fed will have no choice but to continue to raise rates. It may not happen at the next FOMC meeting on Aug. 8th, but they will have to at later meetings.
The reason I say that is this: In 2000, when the tech bubble popped, the Fed lowered interest rates (to 1% when they finished) and flushed the system with monetary liquidity to keep the economy from contracting. When that happened the dollar started a freefall against the other major world currencies. Finally in 2004, when the fed began to raise rates, the dollar stablizied.
The problem is that the U.S. is running huge budget and trade deficits and is grossly in debt. This weighs heavily on a country's currency as it weakens the dollar and any dollar denominated assets. When the Fed raised rates, the dollar stabilized as investors could get better returns even though the country still have deficit and debt issues.
Now, the higher rates are not as important to investors as they are more concerned with the U.S. getting it's financial house in order. Add to that that 24 of the 28 major central banks have raised their rates this year and that puts a lot of pressure on the dollar as investors can now get better returns on currencies that are more stable. It looks like the ECB (European Central Bank) will raise their rates again in Aug. and the BOJ (Bank of Japan) as finally raised rates for the 1st time in six years and will most likely raise them a couple more times before the end of the year.
This is going to put the Feds in a tight spot as to prevent the dollar from falling, they'll have to raise rates. But, if they raise rates, they'll kill the U.S. housing market which is already showing signs of failure do to previous rate hikes.
But, if the Fed has to choose between killing the housing market or the dollar, they'll save the dollar.
So, look for continued rate hikes. Like I said, it may not happen on Aug. 8th, but I'm sure they'll increase rates in successive meetings.
As a matter of fact, I believe bond prices have priced in a 6% rate by year end.
2006-07-26 02:20:14
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answer #2
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answered by 4XTrader 5
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In the US, they will probably level off -- possibly one more rise before the Fed stops. Rate may actually drop by mid-next yr.
2006-07-26 02:59:58
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answer #3
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answered by JeffyB 7
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The enonomy is very unstable right now. Dont invest into stocks, dont buy a car, or a house. Wait it out a little longer and it will improve, it always does.
2006-07-26 02:06:53
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answer #4
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answered by Rae 4
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