Why can't weather forecasters get it right?

Question

There must be enough data out there to construct a more reliable model capable of accurately predicting the weather...

Answer 1

A forecaster uses very complex computer-generated models when forecasting the weather. These models describe what will happen in the atmosphere (for instance, concerning winds, temperature, and humidity) over the coming hours or days.

The models are not perfect, partly because the research about the weather is far from finished, and partly because the physics in the atmosphere is so complicated that some approximations have to be made.

But the biggest problem is the fact that the computer models require observational in-data. Information from weather satellites, weather radar, soundings, and weather observations are put into the computer models, and then the computer starts "calculating the weather into the future". But there are not enough weather obserations and weather radars, especially not over the oceans. If this would change, weather forecasts would improve considerably.

Answer 2

12H-48H forecasts are pretty accurate because uncertainty is less from initial time; forecast models seem to work well within this time frame. Still, long range forecasts (more than 7 days) are still hard to predict due to lack of weather stations across the world that can provide more important weather data in predicting future atmospheric conditions.

Answer 3

1. Nature is not in our control.
2. Most of the weather predictions are made with the help of the last 10-20 year data.
3. Even the satellite images of the clouds on certain locations are not helpful to predict the weather conditions of that particular location because of certain vagaries in nature.
4. There are chances of 50 % probability for success in the weather prediction, even with the most efficient weather prediction moddlings.

Answer 4

You are living proof that those who don't know about the past are doomed to complain about the present. You have no idea of what you are talking about. Weather forcasting is very accurate. If you are wanting 100% accurate forcasts, then start looking for Shangri - La.

Answer 5

Most weather forcasters just look at the data and guess. That's why.

Answer 6

I really don't know...they have many instruments that would make one think they're going to make a good forecast...but I know that if they say it's going to be sunny I better get my umbrella.

Answer 7

Obviously there is not. Just lean back and regard the forecast as entertainment...for that matter, just call the whole "news" broadcast entertainment. ☺

Answer 8

I don't know what you are talking about. They are pretty accurate.

Answer 9

because weather, whether we like it or not, is like a woman- they keep changing their moods....