Will Hezbollah be deterred from future provocative actions if the response was known to be strong?

Question

New reports quote Hezbollah sources saying they are surprized by Israel's full scale war in response to their capturing two of Israel's soldiers.

Answer 1

The near total destruction of the infrastructure of south Lebanon has to be more than Hezbollah bargained for. On the other hand, Hezbollah is not just a political entity but a manifestation of Shiite Islamist politics. Shiites in particular have self-destructive urges, it seems. Furthermore, Islamists and other religious-based, thuggish groups (the IRA and even more the Real IRA come to mind) have little concern with collateral damage to their own side: death and destruction within their own community. And they use outrage -- torture, incidental maiming and murder of children, terrorism -- as an asymmetric political weapon.

If the Europeans and Americans are constrained by human rights norms, terrorists by definition are not. And over time the self- (or treaty-) imposed restraints on the "good guys" may well erode. As we found with Abu Ghraib. In the end, neither side recognizes the humanity of the other. And even noncombatants, civilians, become part of the process.

"Shock and awe" did not work for George W. Bush in Iraq and it will not necessarily work for the Israelis in Lebanon. Not unless it is so viciious and so disabling that it is obvious that resistence is futile. But cutting off arms and/or feet (as King Leopold did to the Congolese and the Spanish Conquistadores did to the Indians of South America) and sanctioning torture as done by the French in Algeria during the dirty war there -- these destroy the West's claim to "civility" and humanity and, in the modern world and with modern communications will not be tolerated by a democratic public. Such terror is for fascists, communists, religous terrorists and other blind extremists whose own constituency is forbidden to dissent and who either don't see the implications for themselves or, like Martin Niemoller, didn't see the risk (in that case of the Nazis coming for him).

Answer 2

That's the idea anyway.

Before Israel's response, Hamas and Hezbollah anticipated a few bombings and raids in response, but that Israel would eventually negotiate a prisoner swap like they've done in the past.

Not this time. There comes a point when you realize that giving into terrorist demands will only encourage and promote more terrorism. The other person in here who thinks being aggressive will cause more terrorism doesn't know their history. Terrorist organizations will continue to exist even if you lay your arms down or negotiate. Many have one main goal - to remove you either from existence or the area you occupy. You do not make it worse by being proactive. In fact, you cause more damage to it. A network that loses any kind of communication and ability to recruit will be on the decline. That's exactly what Al Qaeda is going through, and Hamas/Hezbollah are about to feel the same wrath.

Answer 3

I don't think that it will prevent them from future provocations, but it should make the conflict shorter in duration. Israel has to let them know that they are not going to just sit back and take it, whatever they do. Hezbollah needs to understand that there are consequences for their actions, and they will be swift and severe.

However, I do not think that this will deter their terrorist organizations from future attacks... they will probably just be more discreet and maybe a little more careful who knows they are behind it.

Answer 4

Solid question-Hezbollah needs to be able to take the occasional pot-shot at Israel in order to maintain popularity. I realize they have schools and all that, but they rely on their armed resistance to Israel for their image.

Now they are expending their missiles and the IDF is destroying their ability to move them around. So I think Hezbollah can be deterred because it's the potential to fire missiles etc. that matters to them, not an actual war of attrition.

Answer 5

Yes, because Israel's response was so strong, all terrorism will cease. Those new reports are so right on, I am sure that there will be peace in the middle east from now on. Oh, and thank God Israel killed those pesky UN observers. They were probably wannabe terrorists anyway.

Thanks for the points.

Answer 6

I truly hope so. War is such a scar on the face of humanity, but the people in Hezbollah hate everyone that dosen't agree with their beliefs. You cannot reason with such reckless hate. I hope that Israel gets the job done soon, and I pray for all of the dead.

Answer 7

I just read the article....but from the article, I learned the answer to your questions is NO.

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah defiantly vowed his fighters would begin firing rockets deeper into Israel, beyond the northern port of Haifa.
He said the group would enter a new stage in the fighting, vowing "our attacks will not remain limited to Haifa."

Answer 8

We can only hope so. Their mindset is that they will attack and attack until Israel is destroyed.
However, the strong response by Israel will weaken the Hezbollah terrorist organization and thus they will be less strong in the future

Answer 9

Hezbollah is hardcore against killing all Israelis.. they even convince their children and followers they should all die.. anyone who does that will not stop at nothing until they die.. because they would lose credibility and look like pvssy's to their own people...They are terrorists..You can't change the mentality of people who think suicide bombing is acceptable and an entire class of people should die..

Answer 10

Yes.....any response to any unprovoked attack must be strong, disportionate, over-kill & even if percieved to be against the laws of humanity.....to deter future attacks.

The world must not be 'moved' by TV images of children & woman been hurt by the bombings of Lebanon (by Israel)........where were those sympatheic voices when TV images shown of live captives been beheaded.........tortured human bodies shreded & thrown onto streets..... dead bodies with bullet head wounds.........heads, skulls & scalps found in plastic bags in dustbins....... by terrorists in Iraq!

How many people were blown to bits in Iraq daily by terrorists......can the world just watch n keep silent because the senses are numbed or .... the scenes have been seen so often they become part of the landscapes!?

Israel must fight, bomb, kill................... and ignore the whole hypocritic world of 'moralists'.....in the defence of their country and citizens...... becoz..if they don't....nobody else is going to do it for them. And for that matter........the same applies to any country.....you have a right to self defence!

If the muslims could commit unspeakable terror acts on their fellow muslims...e.g. shites vs sunnis.....spilling muslim blood in the santuary of mosques.........what chance is there for them to be reasonable & rational when it comes to Israel.

The world has to wake up. ......

Iran is so brave now........it's becoz they have recieved, clandestinely,....YES...... nuclear bombs from North Korea (or.... may be from .........Pakistan)........thats why they could talk about burning Israel with 'fire' in the middle east....... and urge Israel to move to Alaska or Greenland!

Israel has no choice....they need to bomb Syria...and send a few missles with nukes into Teheran.

If Israel do that.........the whole world will condemn the act ....but.......privately.... the Arabs will be the first to cheer........n hand out expensive cuban cigars to celebrate.....!

Dont kid yourself..........the real 'godfathers' of the Hezbollah terrorists live in Damascus & Teheran.

Dealing with terrorists...........the only solution is to be more cold-blooded 'terror' than the terrorists....i.e. pay them back in their own coins!

The 'moral majority' who decry human sufferings in wounded children & women but fail to notice beheadings, torture & murders that are shown even more often on TVs........have their biased brains fcuked up & camel shxt in their eyes!

May be these are the ones who should move to Alaska.....and the Iranians could move to Hell!