which is better? Investing in a Bear market fund or a bull market fund?

Question

I have always considered myself a bull market investor. But this year the market has been down and hasn't shown alot of hope for sparking life anytime soon. So would it be a good move to invest in a bear market fund untill I notice the market is going back up? Or would it be better to just keep investing in the bull market fund sweat the loss and hope for gains in the future. And how do these funds make money when the market is going down? I know they primarily use short sales to make a profit, but I dont know much else.

Answer 1

Please don't take what I am saying as offensive. Read the entire email before you send me flame mail. You're an amateur. Amateurs get married to being either a bull or bear. Pro's have no bias. They don't care what the market is doing. If it's falling, they'll go short. If it's rising they'll go long.

It's sounds to me like you're a Permabull. That's great if it's a bull market. But it's not, it's a bear. The Dow runs on a 17-18 year cycle; 1965-1982 was a 17 year bear, 1982-2000 was a 18 year bull. This is 2006, so we are only 6 years into a 17-18 year bear cycle. Does that mean the market won't rally? Of course not. The market from rallied up until May 10 of this year. You can have bear market rallies. I believe we have entered phase II of this bear cycle.

What you need to do is become familiar with the markets. Learn how they work, what kind of cycles they run on, what cycle it's in now. Then tailor make your strategy to fit that market.

It would be foolish to enter a bull fund and ride out the losses until the market reverses. The market has another 11 to 12 years to run in this bear phase, can you wait that long?

To be a pro, you've got to be alert and nimble. You need to be forward looking, see what's happening and be willing to move money from bull to bear and vice versa when needed. Pro's do not get emotionally attached to a view point. The only thing that concerns them is to make a profit and cut loss.

Let me ask you this, if you're making money, does it matter if your a bull or bear? Heck, if I'm making bucks, I would care if I were a Zebra (small joke). What good is it to be a bull if your losing money hand over fist. You can tell your friends that you're a bull, while you have to eat Kraft Mac & cheese cause you can't afford anything else. That applies to anyone who is a bear during a bull cycle.

The bottom line is this - clear your mind of any preconceived notions. Stop listening to everyone else (including me) and do your own research. If the market is telling you that it's in bull phase, invest accordingly. If it's in a bear phase, then move into bear investments.

The best person to give you advice on investing your money is you. Research has found that individuals who do their own research and make their own trading decisions consistently outperform the top fund managers in the country.

Let the market tell you what it's doing and then invest accordingly.

Answer 2

This one is looking good, technically and fundamentally

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=bearx&sid=0&o_symb=bearx&freq=2&time=11

so is this one
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=grzzx&sid=0&o_symb=grzzx&freq=1&time=8