Does luck or skill win at poker?

Question

Curious about how everyone feels about this. If you think poker is part luck and part skill then please specify how much of each plays a role in you winning or losing. Example: 2% luck, 98% skill.

Answer 1

Depends on if you're in a tournament or a cash game.
Cash game - skill is 90/10 in high limit, 50/50 in low limit.
Tournament - skill is only 40/60.
Here's the deal: A large part of the skill is knowing when to hold'em and when to fold'em. I.e., playing only when you have the advantage.

Law of Large Numbers - A mathematical theorem that says that given enough draws, the percentage of times something happens becomes increasingly close to the probability of the event happening once.
Example: I flip a coin once. There's a 50% chance of heads.
I flip it 20 times. There's a 62% chance of 8-12 heads (10 +/- 20%)
I flip a coin 500 times. There is a 97% chance that there will be between 225 and 275 heads. (250 +/- 10%)
WIth 5000 flips, There is a 99.5% chance that there will be between 2400 and 2600 heads (2500 +/- 4%)
With more flips, the odds increase, and the spread decreases.

Therefore, if you play often enough, the skill will beat luck.
But, in a tournament, there aren't enough hands for the skill to shine. A guy can get on a lucky streak for 5-6 hands.

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Here's where the casinos have the edge:

Let's say you play 10,000 hands of an even money game.
Win 5,000 and you break even. More than that, and you win.

But the casino's game is set up so your chances are 49.5/50.5, instead of 50/50. A very modest 1% edge.

The odds that the casino isn't ahead after 10,000 hands?
15.6% (about 1 in 6)

The odds that the casino isn't ahead after 100,000 hands? With just that 1% edge?
0.08% (Roll 5 dice and get 5 of a kind. No rerolls allowed)


Excel formula: =BINOMDIST(100000,100000,0.495,TRUE) - BINOMDIST(50000,100000,0.495,TRUE)

Answer 2

Aaron,

Like all good poker questions, the answer is: It depends. Let's take the most popular poker game going right now and take a look - Texas Holdem. Generally speaking, Texas Holdem has a great balance of luck and skill but even within a single type of game - it can vary.

Okay, what's the structure? Fixed Limit? It is considered an industry standard that an expert limit player playing at his level (i.e. a $40/$80 player playing $40/$80 not $2/$4) should win about two out of three sessions or about 65% of the time. Note that he (or she) doesn't have to lose as much as he wins on the one occasion in three that he loses but he should still lose once in three times on average. For no-limit, it is an industry standard that an expert player will win four out of five sessions, implying that no-limit has a greater dependency on skill. This is in fact true. In low-limit no-limit (no-limit games characterized by having a maximum amount you can buy in) there is no industry standard because the structure is too new - this structure has only been around for a couple of years and few professionals are playing it. I would estimate that a standard for this game is closer to 39 out of 40 times an expert player should win. Thirty-nine out of 40 winning sessions is not a heavily influenced by luck structure.

Much also depends on your competition. Let's say I am the tenth best player in the world - if I am playing against #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8 and #9 then I better get lucky. If on the other hand I am the 159,624th best player in the world but am playing against #1,234,567, #37,860,912 etc. then I'm in pretty good shape and the limited skills I do have are going to make me look like a genius against these guys - hence playing more of a role.

Answer 3

This question makes me laugh. Everyone thinks it is mostly skill. I disagree. I think it is more luck then anything. Example. You go all in with pocket kings. Some one calls you with Ace, 4 suited. You are only 20% favorite to win the hand before the flop. That isn't that much. That has nothing to do with skill. O.k there is skill in bluffing, betting, and reading. I will not doubt that. I have seen so many people lose with King, Ace and pocket pairs all the time. Why because someone go lucky and hit something better. Any way I think that it is 60 luck, 40 skill.

Answer 4

It's probably only something like 2% skill over a single hand but then again you play dozens of hands in a single game so over the course of a single game the luck should cancel out and the most skillful players should have a much better chance of winning. Obviously there's SOME skill involved as the same players tend to finish high in poker events.

Answer 5

Depends on the player.

Experienced: 30% luck, 70% skill

Inexperienced: 70% luck, 30% skill

Answer 6

Luck

Answer 7

It's both. You need skill to to "read" other people and tell how the cards are falling but you need luck to get the right cards. There is no way skill will ever get you a Royal Flush (unless you're a mechanic).

Answer 8

Skill gives you a 1% advantage over the other players, which is quite a bit. The rest is all luck.

Answer 9

In Texas Hold'em, particularly in tournaments, you have to be lucky to win. It takes skill to be good and consistently place in the money, but to actually be "the winner" you have to have the luck of the draw of cards.

I would have to say 75% skill, 25% luck. This sucks for me because I am very unlucky.

Answer 10

Well,maybe some luck is need to win pocker game... but i don't really think that a skill is really need to win. one thing I'm sure we need to win poker games is GUTS !!!!! And don't EVER SHOW ur feeling when u has good or bad card. So people can'tknowhow ur real situation is.