Discuss how logically persuasive you find the argument Below.!?

Question

"It appears that the easiest kind of occupation is that of a forecaster. If a dismal future is forecast and remedial action is taken, the forecaster can claim disaster was avoided because he/she was listened to. However, if the pessimism was well founded, the forecaster can take credit for the ability to predict future events"

In presenting your point of view:
1. Analyse the sort of reasoning used and its supporting evidence.
2. State what further evidence, if any, would make th argument more sound and convincing or would make you better able to evaluate its conclusion.

Answer 1

Forecaster is a person who predicts the future course of events based on the previous records of the events. Any result that is obtained after his forecast will be his own responsible statements. Since, he can claim that the event is ruled out only after taking precautionary measures as per his forecast.
Looking through the practical situation like earthquakes, if the earthquake is well predicted, then it can save millions of life and value by following the precautionary measures before its actual action. If the event is not well predicted, that can be utilized for the future studies.
The provided argument is one sided in itself. It never speaks of the remedial action taken and the forecast is false. Considering the above example, the statement never briefs about the situation i.e, earthquake predicted by the forecaster never happens but, remedial measures have been taken and the cost incurred towards this doesn’t go unaccounted. It is in this sense that the statement goes false. The forecaster is responsible for every statements made by him. The statement only holds good if the forecaster statements are probabilistic i.e, chance of occurrence of an event or the confidence of the forecaster in the forecast.
The statement should have been
“If a dismal future is forecast and remedial action is taken, the forecaster can claim disaster was avoided because he/she was listened to. However, if the pessimism was well founded, the forecaster can take credit for avoiding any future events of the kind which happened due to availability of vital data he/she was looking for.”

Answer 2

The argument would be sound only if the forecaster only gave bleak forecasts. There is however a huge risk for the forecaster who gives a positive prediction because there is a very good chance thing will be beyond dismal and the forecaster would immediately be found to be a fraud.
On the other hand, your little argument goes a long way in explaining how my mither can be so depressing with her consistent predictions of doom and gloom and her propensity for always being right (at least in her eyes)! What a pain in the a**!

Answer 3

I did not spend as much time at college as what i paid for but i quess it is inductive reasoning because the argument starts with the general and works it down to the specific. The reasoning is fallacious offcourse because the forecaster cannot claim that there was no disaster because he warned people about it, the forcaster was simply just wrong. The second tear of the argument is a bit better, a 'i told you so' argument, but that does still not mean that he can predict future events. you need to give more details about what methodoly he uses to determine the outcomes and previous success rates. then the forcaster can start bragging. Don't qoute any of this on you report though cause i have no idea what is goning on. i just think of things to say and let it rip. so i am 98% sure that i am wrong especially about the sort of reasoning used, inducive, conducive, inclusive, why do they have us speaking latin?..again?

Answer 4

Use the word 'fortune-teller' instead of forecaster so people realise you mean a psychic rather than a weather forecaster.

To enhance the argument you could say how the fortune-teller's job is the easiest if he makes a -good- prediction, and how he could also put a spin on the outcome to be a win/win for him.

Answer 5

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Answer 6

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Answer 7

I had 12 pints of strong lager and knew it would give me diarrhoea and it did, after i had shat me self i put me underpants in my girlfriends handbag and poped it on top of the gas fire.
Now i know that if i drink 12 pints of strong lager i will shat me self again so i know i can predict future events on past evidence.
I also know that by not drinking those 12 strong lagers i can change future events but i would be as dull as the person who posted this question.... simple really

Answer 8

I can but it is clear ya just want an answer

Ya are so bored ya just wana ask a Q

so ask

but don't be surprised ya don't get many answers

If ya want an answer to a valid Q, I will do better

Answer 9

Actually the easiest occupation is a 'antique cord consultant' because its money for old rope

Answer 10

Are you out of your mind.... Think I'm gonna do all homework for you just for 2 points. You're having a laugh lol