based on the question that somebody just asked and i asnswered saying the statisitc..?

Question

15 people die in every 15 seconds from murder in the usa...meaning a person dies every second..based on this statistic if you lived lets sayyy 100 years and the population is 300 mill. what is the percent chance you can get murdered?

Answer 1

Assuming the population is 300 mil the whole 100 years:

In 100 years there are 4•60•24•365.25•100 = 210384000 15 second intervals.

Every 15 seconds, there is (300 million - 15)/(300 million) probability you aren't murdered.

If you aren't murdered in 100 years, then you "missed" this probability 210384000 times. Thus the probability that you aren't murdered is about [(300 million - 15)/(300 million)] ^210384000 ≈ 0.002701278561%, so the probability that you are murdered in 100 years is 1-(probability of not being murdered) ≈ 99.99729872%


Also, there is a difference between 1 person dies every 1 second and 15 people die every 15 seconds (if the main population is always constant). This can be seen by considering only 15 people are around. The odds of dying in 15 seconds (if 1 person dies every 1 seconds) is 1-(14/15)^15<1. The odds of dying in 15 seconds (if 15 people die every 15 seconds) is 1-(0/15)^1=1. The odds change.

Now, if the number of people decrease (with an initial population of a≥15)

1 person every second: 1-{[(a-1)/a] • [(a-2)/(a-1)] • [(a-3)/(a-2)] • . . . • [a-15)/(a-14)]} = 1-[(a-15)/a] = (a-(a-15))/a = 15/a

15 people die every 15 seconds: 15/a

So, if the population decreases over the time then 1 every 1 second is the same as 15 every 15 seconds. BUT if the population stays constant (assuming an equal birth rate), then the two probabilities are different.

Answer 2

There is a 100% chance that you CAN get murdered.

To calculate the chance that you will get murdered, we first need to calculate the chance that you live, then the chance that that you get murdered is 100% minus the chance that you live.

Assuming that someone ALWAYS died every second, then within only 3 years and two months, everyone would be dead except for you, and then you would of have to kill yourself.

Assuming that the population is always stable at 300 million then the equation is a little different.

100 years of seconds = (100)(365.25)(24)(60)(60) = 3,155,760,000 seconds

299,999,999 out of 300,000,000 million each second.
1 - (299,999,999 / 300,000,000) ^ 3,155,760,000 = 99.99729872... chance to get murdered.

Answer 3

Very small. Much less than 1%.

Answer 4

300,000,000*100/3,653,155,760= the required ans.