What will the total world population be in 400 years?

Question

www.populationconection.org provides this information:

1800 = 1 billion
1930 = 2 billion
1960 = 3 billion
1975 = 4 billion
1987 = 5 billion
1999 = 6 billion

"With a current annual growth rate of 1.3 percent, world population is projected to double in...54 years."

...without a major disease or war.

...without a major disease or war.

Answer 1

Absolute nonsense. The world's population is not projected to double in 54 years. The world's population is expected to hit just 9 billion within 50 years, that is less thana 50% oncrease.

After 50 years the population is expected to begin declining. It is very hard to predict population that far in the future but in 450 years time the global population will probably be around 3 billion people.

IOW in 450 years time there will be fewer than half the people on Earth that there are today.

You really should stop reading environmental alramist websites and start getting your informationf rom reliable sources. I've provided a reference from the UN that shows that the Earth's population will never exceed 9 billion people and will begin to decline within 50 years. You really should read it.

Answer 2

400 years is a long time into the future.
Now your question was world specific and not total human population so I would estimate that the total world population would be somewhere about 2 billion assuming the best.

That is to say that sometime in the future man will realize that the planet is only so big and has only so much carrying capacity.
Hopefully in 400 years a certain amount of compassion exists among all people so that none then would live in anything close to what anyone who might read this would consider poverty.

Given that ,and the idea that technology will make things more efficient, I think there is room on the planet for about 2 billion maybe.

Now If humans survive another 400 years I firmly expect them to be a space traveling race. How far out in space is a different question altogether. Do you think that in 400 years humans will be able to travel to a nearby star? Or live in one of the other planets in the solar system without support from Earth.

Answer 3

This is an Exponential Growth Problem
P(t) = Poexp(kt) where Po is your initial population at time = 0.

We can find the growth constant k by taking the natural log of both sides...
ln(P(t)) = ln(Po) + kt

so k = [ln(P(t)) - ln(Po)]/t

If we chose 2 values, say: 1960, and 1975
1975 - 1960 = 15 years

There were 4 Billion people in 1975 so P(1975) = 4 Billion
P(1960) = 3 Billion (we'll let this be our Po)

k = [(ln(4Billion) - ln(3Billion)]/15 = 0.01918 or rounding up: 0.02 (percent growth is 0.02 * 100 or 2% growth rate.

From the above data: the population during 2399 AD
should be: P(2399) = (6 Billion)exp(0.02*400)
= (6 Billion)exp(8)
= (6 Billion) * (2981)
= 17886 BILLION People.

Assuming there are no major catastrophes such as Nuclear War, a plague, etc.

Answer 4

You have to take into account the unexpected: tsunamis, wars (ok these are expected, but you know what I mean), and anything else that could dramatically drop the global population. In 50 years, the population will double (12 billion). I think in 400 years the population (if Earth still exists and trends remain the same, which is highly unlikely btw), will probably be around 60 billion. This of course will never happen, because we'll all probably nuke each other to death within the next 100 years.

Answer 5

Mathematics is not the dictator of this answer. Just rationalize... to have a stable or growing population, you must be able to feed that population. Considering that we have yet to fully utilize hydroponics, our food supply is more limited than we can imagine. Current theorists have numbers ranging from 10-12 billion. But consider that the farming on this scale will conflict with housing development. There are far too many variables that are real. For example, history has shown that when food becomes scarce... civilizations go to war. Look at North Korea now. I would love to give you a rosy colored answer that human population will continue unchecked, but that is not true. Our first problem will be worldwide famine... and we are supposed to see it by 2060.

Answer 6

Assuming the double population every 50 years continues for 400 years:
99=6 billion
2100=24 billion
2200=96 billion
2300= 384 billion
2400= 1.536 Trillion

Of course this is assuming also that we don't have massive wars and plauges that wipe out enormous amounts of people at once, and we are still actually on this planet in 400 years. Thats a lot of R&D in terriforming and space travel I hope. otherwise, hope you have elbow pads, cause its going to get real crowded.

Answer 7

I've heard projections for 9 billion in 2050

However, in 400 years I think the population will be 3.
John Kerry
Hillary Clinton
and Ted Kennedy

It's the secret botox

Answer 8

Malthus population model assumes, in a vey simplistic wat, that population GROWTH RATE remains constant (i.e N(t)=N(t-1) x (1+r)
where N(t) is the pop at time t and r is the growth rate.
That the assertio is false is easily porven by letting a fat growing populatio (say, fungi) in a limited environment. Fungi will grow up to the environment capacity, but the rate of growth will slow as the environment sautrates. The same is true for human beings.
The new, more modern models, assume that the rate of growth eventuallly hits zero.
The equiaton can be written as
N(t) = No x K / [No + (K-N) x exp(-r0 x t) ].
For furhter explanation see the link below

Answer 9

ITs impossible even if there was no war in 400 there would be no food left unless we teraform mars we all gonna die which happens anyway cause a human can only live so long.

Answer 10

Would you like that estimate with or without a pandemic or world war?