It's an astronomical certainty we'll be struck by an extinction level asteroid, what?

Question

is the probability that it will strike at any moment?

I've heard there's a 1 in 20,000 chance that when we wake up in the morning, we'll be hit by 10km asteroid.

Answer 1

It's a statistical certainty that something will hit the earth. The only question is "when"? On average, about every 100 million years something big hits us. So, maybe every billion years, kaploooieee!!! No more earth. At any moment? Nawww - we could see it coming, maybe even a year ahead of time. Then we'll have to get Bruce Willis to save our bacon.

Answer 2

No, it is not a certainty. The probability is extremely low for an asteroid to hit Earth in any one year. For long time periods, the probability goes up, so that over millions of years the probability is quite high that at least one such impact will occur. But it is not certain, ever. There is a possibility that Earth will never again be struck with such a large asteroid. It is like roulette. The probability that the ball will fall into the number 10 slot is fairly small for each spin, but the probability that it will fall in the number 10 slot AT LEAST ONCE in a thousand spins is quite high. But there is a possibility that it will never again fall into slot 10, even after millions of spins.

Answer 3

Science gives hope to not to worry about this problem,

Probablity that extinction level asteroid hitting earth in next 100years is almost 0. We have good monitoring system and now system is cabable of finding all extinction level asteroids. We should be able to find extinction level asteroids much in advance and take actions.
If we find extinction level asteroid, we can drift it path away from us. We have technology to do that. Nucelar bomb on asteroid may be counter productive as it will create multiple particles which will be difficult to manage
In few years we should be able to get technology to find out catastropic asteroids.(Which can cause local damages).

Probabilities of asteroid hitting earth are calculated based on History which may not be relevant now. When solar system started there were many small astroids and over the time many of that has hit various planets so asteroids which are left now are much lesser than what it was earlier. So probability is coming down.

Answer 4

This question really cannot be assigned any probability. The occurrence of planet killing asteroids goes down with each one that strikes. You can also look at it this way: This has already happened (approx 50 million years ago), so when will it happen AGAIN? My advice is not to worry too much about it, as if it happens, there is nothing anyone at this time can do to stop it, and we will probably not see it coming, anyway. Lastly, a HUGE asteroid just recently hit Jupiter, so the likely hood of this event happening again in our lifetime is extremely low, and the likely hood of it happening on earth is even lower.

Answer 5

The probability of an extinction level asteroid striking at any given moment is extraordinarily small, but over a long enough period of time the odds will catch up to us. I believe that a catastrophic asteroid (+1km) hits around every 100,000 years. We haven't been struck by one in around 200,000 years, so we're due. I don't think that a 1km asteroid would be extinction level but it certainly would be devastating.

Answer 6

100% Chance It will hit one day. But will it hit in our life time. May be not. If we can detect we can deflet then from the orbit thus the earth can be saved.

Answer 7

May 6th 2017

only a 16.5598% chance

Answer 8

Sept. 27 2012 good luck and dig your hole deep!

Answer 9

0% probability.... its not how it ends read Revelation.

Answer 10

No worries man, no worries.