VICTOR ROMERO: It’s a miracle.
GREG PALAST: How did the miracle occur?
VICTOR ROMERO: How did the miracle occur? I don't know.
GREG PALAST: On a computer printout, Dr. Romero showed how the official tallies matched the exit polls, with challenger Lopez Obrador ahead by 2% all night. That is, until the very end, when several precincts came in for the ruling party by 10-to-1, and then 100-to-1, putting their candidate Felipe Calderon over the top, literally in the last minutes. The doctor found that statistically improbable.
VICTOR ROMERO: We reached the point I said, “It’s over.” But then, from 71% ‘til the very end, there was not a single moment in which the difference from one report to the next became bigger.
GREG PALAST: So it didn't change at all. Just was perfect.
VICTOR ROMERO: Perfect, perfect. And so we just couldn't believe it. I mean, it fell -- with 5% to go, it fell one full point.
GREG PALAST: So then, what happened?
VICTOR ROMERO: Another miracle. Statistically, it's a second miracle. But now it is --
GREG PALAST: Well, are you a religious man?
VICTOR ROMERO: I’m not a religious man.
GREG PALAST: So you don't believe in miracles?
VICTOR ROMERO: No, but other people do, so, you know. They say that it works even if you don’t believe in them, so.
GREG PALAST: The results may not seem so miraculous if you take a look at these voter sheets. This is from a district in Guanajuato, which shows that Calderon picked up 192 votes, but Obrador, the challenger, got only 12. And here’s how this miraculous total can be explained. ...
http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/07/12/146201
2006-07-14
08:31:39
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8 answers
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lifelover
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Politics & Government
➔ Politics
Did you read the entire article?
2006-07-14
08:47:02 ·
update #1
Reliability of exit polls
1. The same US online encyclopedia cited above ([11]) states that
"Exit poll data - asking voters which way they voted as they leave the polls - are used around the world as excellent predictors of actual vote counts, usually accurate within a fraction of a point.
2006-07-14
08:50:40 ·
update #2