what will happen if Lopez Obrador wins in Mexico?

Answer 1

First of all: Calderon has not "won" yet as of today, July 15th, 2006
The Federal Electoral Court still has to "certificate" the election, thus rendering Calderon as the official winner.
Currently, AMLO's party has presented two cases ("impugnation") to the Court in order to allow him the following:

1. Perform a re-counting of most votes.
2. Rule the election invalid, arguing that most of the process was illegally manipulated by the President, the media, the ruling class, etc.

If the votes are re-counted and Lopez Obrador wins (has most votes) the Federal Court may declare him the legal elected President of Mexico, to be inaugurated on December 1st, 2006.

If the election is declared invalid, the Country is going to be in real trouble... because there is no clear process about what happens next... in theory IFE (the Federal Electoral Institute) must organize a new election and derive from it the new President... I believe that because of the schedules, Mr. Fox would remain in office until the new election is carried out.

Independently of all this... what will happen if Lopez Obrador wins in Mexico?
There are two points of view... the current ruling class, including the 36% of the population that voted for Calderon and most domestic and international companies would perceive this as a disaster because AMLO is believed to be a populist who will dilapidate and destroy the healthy public financial situation of Mexico and will incur in anti-market, anti-USA, anti-corporate measures, much like the ones Evo Morales in Bolivia is conducting.

On the other hand, there's is the remaining 36% who voted for AMLO, probably the working class, the farmers, indigenous populations and those sectors currently in poverty. This segment of the Mexican people would perceive a triumph from Lopez Obrador as a new "ray of hope" to improve their financial situation.

What would really happen is hard to know. Many believe that in case AMLO wins, and in spite of his incendiary and private-enterprise hate-discourses their policies are highly counter-balanced by a segmented Congress in which AMLO's party (PRD) has no significant majority to approve their populist plans.

Answer 2

Lopez Obrador lost to Felipe Calderon.