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Where do you see the Canadian dollar vuris the US dollar over the next 12 months ???

2006-07-10 04:31:50 · 2 answers · asked by RAD999 1 in Business & Finance Investing

2 answers

You know the future is uncertain, and you can get as many of these "predictions" as you want, and they'll all be different and none of them will be correct, so what is it you're trying to do? Or what is it exactly you want to know? I'm not being flippant, but rather trying to help.

A long-term trade in stocks is 12 months or more, but a long-term trade in currencies is 1-3 months. Banks hold longer, as long as their position supports it, but their is usually a hedge, and they are not trying to make a prediction.

Personally, I won't try to predict anything more than 24 hrs. Here's a post I made on the PremiereTrade Message Board yesterday:

If it starts to run now, go long the USD/CAD above 1.1170-80, target 1.1250, stop right here at 1.1145.

Early this morning, the CAD ran up to 1.1260, for a nice 80 pip gain.

But next year? You've got to be kidding. That's the sort of thing the media likes to make believe about, like someone really knows the answer. These articles are rarely written by traders, who know better. Even if a trader has such a prediction, he is constantly adjusting his positions with new data daily, and the prediction changes with each new set of data. So if someone gives you a prediction, it will be different tomorrow and next week. So what is the point of predictions? In the corporate world and banking world, they have to have an overall big picture agenda, something to shoot for to coordinate all departments. But for the individual, it seems rather pointless.

Nonetheless, here's an article by a trader: Shawn Powell
June, 2006

There is a lot to talk about the USD/CAD. It has been an exciting month to trade this pair inside of a steady 200 plus pip channel. The two upcoming economic indicators to watch for in the next week are Canadian CPI Consumer Price Index and Canadian Retail Sales.

Technical Perspective

As traders, we have watched Fibonacci levels to the short side over the past six months, and it is always interesting to see how accurate these levels actually are. Targets of 1.1550, 1.1350 and then 1.1091 were all achieved in the span of a few months.

The new technical levels, which are on the table as I write, are 1.0800, 1.0400 and amazingly even parity at 1.0000. This pair may offer some strong long-term selling opportunities if the current two-year trend maintains itself.

The 1.1300 area was previously thought to be unbreakable. This level was strongly supported by an 18-year price low. As is often the case, if there is enough pressure, any level can be broken. The challenge will be for the USD/CAD to break below its current sideways range. Resistance comes into play at the 1.1250 level. Above this 1.1350 and 1.1550 are the next two levels. Below, 1.0990 is holding steady as the current price floor. The pair has made three attempts in the past two months to move lower. None have made it through thus far. It may pay to keep an eye on oil prices, with a rise triggering the pair to move lower.
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Pretty good article, yes?

He's basically giving you points to look for, to change your predictions.

2006-07-10 07:17:10 · answer #1 · answered by dredude52 6 · 1 0

Consensus Economics publishes monthly forecasts:

http://www.consensuseconomics.com/publications/foreign_exchange.htm

2006-07-10 06:04:19 · answer #2 · answered by NC 7 · 0 0

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