When will the UK's over 65s equal the under 15s?

Question

In 2001
Under 15: 11105238
Over 65: 9340606
Does anyone know when they are predicted to meet?
(Is this even in the right category?)

I.e. when (No. >65) - (No <16) = 0

Answer 1

% of population 65 and over in 2004 was 16%, and has been increasing at an average 0.09% per year since 1971

% under 16 was 19% in 2004, and has been decreasing at an average rate of 0.18% per year since 1971


Assuming this continues to change at a steady rate (not a great assumption, I know. The "Baby Boom" throws that out a bit, as demographer_uk says):

(19-16)/(0.18+0.09) = 11 years (i.e. until 2015), when :-

under 16s = 19 - (11 x 0.18) = 17%
65 and overs = 16 + (11 x 0.09) = 17%

Answer 2

when the under 15´s are over 65

Answer 3

around 2010.

The number of under 15 in the UK is declining slightly every year (because the total number births in on a gradual decreasing trend.

in the 2011 the number of over 65 will suddenly shot up, because of the first baby boom in 1946 after the war, they will start passing the 'pensioner' threshold in 2011.

The ageing of population in UK is actually nowhere as serious as countries such as Japan, Italy and Spain, where fertility rate is much lower and life expectancy is higher.

Answer 4

erm???
when:
65s - (x)=15s
X=??

when humans learn to roll rould the clock at 100s n go to zero like cars??

Answer 5

Very interesting question. I guess you can only predict that with the help from a statistician.

Answer 6

Sooner than the government can find a way to pay for their retirement.

Answer 7

I thought they had already overtaken the youngsters.