Are we really going to run out of oil? ... If so when?

Question

The world has 1.3 Trillion barrels of proven oil reserves. It is estimated that world could hold as much as 700 billion unproven oil reserves.

The World consumes 29 Billion barrels a year and oil consumption grows 2.5% a year on average.

If the estimates are correct and the world only has 2.5 trillion barrels of oil, with 29 billion barrels consumed a year increasing 2.5% year that leaves us with 82 years of oil.

Source: CIA Fact Book

Answer 1

The problem with your figures is that it lulls everyone into thinking, well with 82 years there is no reason to rush.

So nothing changes because it is not urgent. But remember there have been alternitives to gas engiens around sense the 1950's but where can you find then today?

Remember the long gas lines back in the 1970's. Big warning to everyone that the supply of oil will not be there forever. And as supply goes down and demand goes up well we are seeing what happens now.

Another problem with the calculation is the unknown. Back in the 1950's, less that 55 years ago, gas was cheap by today's standards. Very cheap. Less that .50 cents a gallon.

No way to predict then how many cars and ways that oil could be used just 55 years later and not of much concern either.

Another factor you have not included. How many gallons of gas do they get from just one barrel of oil. Using barrels of oil as a gauge is a bit misleading.

If we do not begin moving towards oil Independence now we may find that 80 years shrink to much less. Especially with other nations beginning to use more and more.

All countries of the world have been hiding thier head about this for decades. The U.S. is by far the worse. Don't believe it? Look around next time your on the freeway. Are you still looking up at most vehicles that are lucky to get 20 MPG?

Your answer of course is YES!. It will happen and if history tells you anything it will be sooner than we think.

Answer 2

Peak oil is a very good theory that even the oil industry now generally admits is correct. One that has held true with all oil wells, oil fields, and oil producing countries that have peaked so far, including the United States. Peak oil shows that oil will not run out any time soon but it will become harder and harder to get out of the ground after it has peaked. Chances are that has already happenned. This means that oil will get more and more expensive due to supply and demand until the alternatives are simply much cheaper. That means that the 2.5% a year increase in consumption that you site can simply not continue. To Brent - So if oil is constantly created how come it hasnt regenerated in the United States. Shale oil and oilsand is very difficult to extract oil from - often taking more energy to extract than it contains. To D. H. - hydrogen is not a fuel so much as an effective battery. We already have batteries that are more efficient than hydrogen and last longer - we could have put these cars into use a decade ago before various governments dumped billions into the myth of hydrogen.

Answer 3

The estimate on the amount of oil reserves is going up all the time so it's difficult to say how long the exisitng oil will last.

New oil is being constantly being created from biomatter. It's not just from dinosaurs. It's a slow process though and I don't know if it happens fast enough to keep up with our consumption.

Also, I doubt that your estimates include shale oil. Most estimates don't. There is much more shale oil than regular oil known to exist. It's just as usefull, but more difficult and expensive to extract, but if the price gets high enough (were almost there) it will become profitable.

While it's impossible to say for sure, we probably have much more than 82 years worth of oil.

Answer 4

Some where between 80 and a 100 years; as look at the changes of the past few years. Hybrid vehicles will continue to grow as gasoline prices rise and that will increase efficiency, conservation will be a factor as prices go up. The biggest increase in demand is not the United States but China and India. It will be interesting to see how far their demand goes?

Answer 5

The theory of "peak oil" is very popular today and it basically states that the oil production of the world has peaked, meaning we have used up half of our oil supply and production is going down as there is not as much oil level. Just google peak oil and you will probably find what you are looking for, graphs and statistics. Just remember it is a theory and not truth. I had to remind a couple of proffessors that.

Answer 6

Someday it will be gone , but we have time to sensibly develope alternatives. Foolishly rushing into unproven technology could spell disaster.
Hydrogeni s a possibility but remember it's easier to ignite than gasoline. I don't think I'd want to be in an accident with tanks of hydrogen and oxygen involved.
Can you spell,BOOM ??!!

Answer 7

then i guess in 82 years we will run out. u answered ur own question

Answer 8

ok