How do poker pros calculate the odds of winning so quickly? Is there some sort of shortcut or is it memory?

Question

I can tell when I'm a huge favorite or a slight underdog, but not with the degree of certainty they seem to know. (i.e. I called an all in bet when I had top two pair against a guy i put on a draw with one card to come. I suffered what i suspected was a really bad beat and i checked a poker odds calculator which said I was an 80% favorite, but i don't know how to tell this while I'm at the table. Is there an easy way? I had the other guy covered and I was getting about 3 to one on my call) BTW this was no limit hold 'em

Answer 1

Before the flop, there really aren't that many combinations:

A pair vs. two overcards (ex. 9-9 vs. A-J) = coin flip (the 9-9 is between 50-55%)
A pair vs. one overcard (ex. 9-9 vs. A-8) = pair is 2-1 favorite
A pair vs. two undercards (ex: 9-9 vs. 6-7) = pair is 3-1 favorite
A pair vs. lower pair (ex: 9-9 vs. 8-8) = high pair is 4-1 favorite

With no pairs:

Two high vs. two low (ex. 9-8 vs. 5-4) = high cards are 75-80%
One high vs. two middle (ex: J-5 vs. 6-7) = hich card is 60%
Interleaved (J-8 vs. 9-7) = high card is 55%

The odds are about the same whether the high card is a 9 or an A.

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After the flop: Odds of hitting are about 4% times the number of outs.
After the turn: Odds of hitting are about 2% times the number of outs.

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How to handle bad beats:
This is more psychology.

If you play often enough, the bad beats will even out (When the board makes a bad beat, half the time you get burnt, half the time you luck out.)

Answer 2

After the flop its your number of outs times 4 +2 approximatly. After turn it is your number of outs times 2 +2. so if you have 4 outs after flop u have approximatly 18% chance of winning. The plus 2 makes it a little more accurate in my opinion. It also depends on your pot odds. IF THere is 100 dollars in the pot and the person bets 25. it might be worth calling because u are getting 4-1 pot odds.

Answer 3

Well, this is the trick I use:

After the flop, look at your hold cards and calculate how many "outs" you have.
Then take that number and multiply by 4.5 (or just 4 to save time) and those are your odds for the turn card. For the river card multiply your "outs" by 2.5

Answer 4

Memory, check out my source link below.

The (outs x 4)+2 and (outs x 2)+2 answers given are good ways too if your mind works that way, and really you only need to ballpark the odds to make your decisions.

For me remembering the commented lines in the chart is good enough to have me making good plays, and its faster in the heat of battle.

Answer 5

After the flop and before the turn, your odds of winning are your number of outs times four. After the turn and before the river, the odds are your number of outs times two.

Answer 6

thay know from playing so much