When will West Balkan (Croatia, Bosnia,Serbia..) join EU ?

Answer 1

Of course at this point it's entirely speculative, but they're going to join at widely differing times. The Ex-Yugoslav countries have various legal and commercial infrastructure, and their development will influence how quickly they'll be accepted.

Croatia and Montenegro will probably be the first to join- I'd expect them to be members or moving toward it very rapidly in the next 5 years. Montenegro is helped by its recent vote for independence, but doesn't have the intellectual property protections yet that will be needed for admission (they just enacted copyright law in January 2006). Croatia is already using the Euro as its currency, which will ease transition, but is in the same place as it does not have the fully developed legal system necessary.

Bosnia and Macedonia are further away from joining, due to their relative economic underdevelopment. Bosnia especially, as it is still suffering from the effects of the war. But the large influx of US, Japanese, and EU money to aid development will help get them moving along. There are already several projects aimed at modernization of their legal system. The one thing that will retard their induction is the very clouded ownership of many properties. During the war many people fled property they owned, in some cases mining or boobytraping it behind them. Squatters also took over property that wasn't theirs. This still hasn't been figured out yet, and makes for a measure of uncertianty in investing.

Serbia is more developed in terms of economy and law, but there is still a large amount of reluctance to their admission since they are widely seen as the instigators of the Bosnian war. The Montenegran independence is seen by many as a way for Montenegro to get foreign assistance without the burden of Serbia.

It may take a while, but I imagine all of the Ex-Yu countries will be members within 20 years, and the first countries joining in 5-10.

Answer 2

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