What are the chances of a large asteroid colliding with earth in the next 50 years?

Answer 1

According to Australian Planetary Society the chance is 1 in 2000.

A British study said that a mile-wide object strikes the earth once every 250,000 years, and a Reuters report says that a kilometer-wide object hits us once every 700,000 years. Scientific American thinks a half-mile wide object hits us once every 600,000 years, and a smaller tidal-wave-creating, forest-flattening, or city-wrecking object strikes once every 5000 years.

It looks like the chances are slight, and considering how many astronomers are staring at the skies every night, I think we'll have plenty of warning in any event.

Answer 2

About the same odds of a large asteroid colliding with Earth the past 50 years.

In a great and expansive universe, it's pretty slim when two objects of significant mass collide. But it does happen.

Answer 3

The chances are very small. If there were an asteroid on a trajectory for the Earth in its orbit we could calculate that its path would bring it into the path of the Earth's orbit. So none of the known large asteroids are going to unless something else changes their course. Nevertheless, I would say the odds are about 1/50,000,000.

Answer 4

The chance of a large asteriod hitting the earth in the next 50 years is 75%

Answer 5

I think the chances are very slim....probably less than 1%. I think we'll have a couple of asteroids that will come close to the earth within the next fifty years, but they won't hit us.

Answer 6

Last night's close approach was only 30 Earth diameters away from us. You do not have to be a statistics major to realize that it points to a possible impact in terms not of millions of years, but more likely centuries. But still doubtful in our lifetimes.

By 2008, NASA will have catalogued all PHAs (potentially hazardous asteroids) greater than 1 km wide. That size and larger are considered to be "civilisation destroyers" should they impact the Earth. However, to know the orbital elements of all these PHAs is to be able to calculate all future possibilities of impact from them, and perhaps have time to do something about it (call in Bruce Willis??).

The unknown danger comes from long-period comets entering the Solar System. These are unpredictable, and the solid core of these can be 10 Km wide or more. However, they are rare, and the chances of one hitting the Earth is measured in one in tens of millions of years.

It is believed that the Chixculub impact of 65 million years that did in the dinosaurs, was one of these, and we probably have not had one since.

Answer 7

About the same as England's chances of winning the world cup in the next 50 years

Answer 8

listed right here are 2 data (and that i advise data, not hypothesis) that all and diverse looks to push aside, not aspect out, or pass over gently: it really is anticipated (not wide-spread, yet guessed at) that there are thousands of undiscovered NEO or close to Earth products, Earth-orbit crossing asteroids 100m diameter or more beneficial. Given a collision with only one which length is a substantial disaster, i stumble on guessing at numbers of risky products to be not all that comforting. the overall time between significant catastrophic collisions (like Chicxulub, Arizona Crater, Tunguska) is many thousands if not thousands and thousands of years. even if it truly is an average period. some durations would nicely be longer, or shorter. 2 collisions might want to easily as well come close mutually as some distance aside. Given the 1000's of crater scars and effect remnants considered from area and detected on the floor right here on earth which have not yet been erased through climate, one could not take a lot convenience in an average period it truly is longer than one's existence expectancy. yet another nonetheless significant incontrovertible actuality it truly is previous asteroid concerns is comets. The very lengthy era or one-bypass comets which have not been considered previously are literally not envisioned. and they bypass quick. some can seem on discovery pictures as mere dots previous Jupiter, and are available close to to the daylight in a year or a lot less. As Jupiter has shown us two times contained in the perfect 20 years, helpful from a comet would nicely be truly an experience. nonetheless yet another fact that i stumble on little convenience in is the only "you're extra probably to die from an asteroid or comet hit than be killed in a plane crash". nicely, i replaced into about three hundred ft from the effect of a 727 airliner with one hundred thirty 5 human beings on board. i replaced into in my the front backyard in San Diego on the morning of September 25, 1978. considering my spouse replaced right into a flight attendant with yet another airline, i replaced into not interested in going to view the destruction of lives and belongings. i replaced into on a DC-8 coming to land at Love field, Dallas contained in the Sixties, and considered out the window to ascertain a Cessna plane going any incorrect way merely previous the wingtip. those 2 situations have shown me that air mess united statescan or might want to hit close to to abode. And if an asteroid has a extra acceptable probability of having me than those, i'm not particular of the protection of estimates and averages I see everywhere.

Answer 9

Maybe all the calamities, the mountians falling-the low places rising-the oceans be shifted north, that will come just before Jesus returns will result in something like that. The forces of nature do obey the Lord.

Answer 10

Slim, as it would hit alot of other objects before it reached Earth, and be quite broken up into smaller pieces by the time it got to our atmosphere.