There are two privately-run weather stations which specialise in forecasting whether it will rain on a given day. Weather station A is extremely accurate in its prediction as its prediction is accurate 60% of the time. The other station is not as accurate and its prediction is accurate only 30% of the time. So weather station A is 40% inaccurate at time and weather station B is 70% inaccurate at time. So does that mean station B is 70% accurate at time and station A is 40% accurate at time, taking that it will only predict if it rain and not rain. So which is the most accurate weather station that you will call if both station only predict it rains or not?
2006-07-02 16:40:37 · 6 answers · asked by Decisiveliu 1 in Science & Mathematics ➔ Mathematics
Since your problem statement is binary (rain/not rain, go/no go), then the Bayesian arithmetic to invert the problem is simple, 1-p, where p is the probability of an event.
2006-07-02 17:28:19 · answer #1 · answered by none2perdy 4 · 3⤊ 0⤋
Your problem statement is "inaccurate".
If the the forecast where binary (will rain / will not rain), that of the course the station 2 is more reliable.
For a real for cast, there are many more parameters (temp 60 to 70, NW wind 20 mph, 25-25% chances of rain). "Accurate" means that all actual weather parameters match the prediction. In this case, station 1 is obviously better.
2006-07-02 23:54:19 · answer #2 · answered by arkadaur 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Call station B and believe the opposite of what they predict. That gives you a 70% chance of knowing whether it will rain.
2006-07-02 23:57:46 · answer #3 · answered by ChainSmokeKansasFlashDance 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Which station went out on a limb and said "Ther is only a 15% chance that the limb from one tree out or 10 billion trees is coming through your kitchen window". Which ever one you feel safe with is the way to go. It will be a couple years before we have weather forecast computers with feelings untill then stick with yours.
2006-07-02 23:48:47 · answer #4 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋
Ofcourse, I will call Weather station B to increase my cances of getting a true reply - use opposite of what they say - 70 % of times.
2006-07-03 00:01:55 · answer #5 · answered by Real Guy 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
dont look at all and just carry a small umbrella every day just think about it u know what watch them all and then u choose what u want to wear. scertain things u just dont streess on it is weather. or it will rain or it wont no ones perfect
2006-07-02 23:49:46 · answer #6 · answered by mineveah01 1 · 0⤊ 0⤋