Is the USA in decline, soon to be supplanted by China?

Answer 1

I don't think so for one important reason. China is not free and the USA is.

China is developing very quickly. But unless it becomes much more free, there will be serious limits on how far it will come. Freedom will always mean that greatest efficiencies in the economy and the greatest ability to compete.

Answer 2

No. At least not anytime soon to be sure. Remember in the 1980's people thought Japan was gonna own America by now. Didn't quite turn out that way. Don't believe the hype.

They are doing well because of the large untapped aggregate economy. It was so poorly run in Maoist China that any productive change would have a marked positive effect. There eventually be a law of diminishing returns as the country labour rates are forced high by wage demand. Also the country can't contain the Yuan's undervalued status in perpetuity.

Answer 3

I doubt that it will soon (10-15 years or so) be supplanted by China.

I wonder if the USA is in decline or how to compare these things.
They say we make more per person but it costs a lot more per person to live here. In california it can cost a quarter of a million US dollars to buy a 1 bedroom condo in sacramento.(well over 150k in outlining areas) You can spend upwards of 4 million for a 3000 sq. ft. condo plus other expenses.

Then there is the national dept issue.
How much of what is in the USA is REALLY owned by americans (a mortgage is a good example someone else really owns the home until you pay it off, it is just that you have certain rights to it)

Answer 4

If China is on the rise, the areas in decline the most (at least relatively) will NOT be the USA but Europe and Japan. It is because both Europe and Japan is now experiencing population decline, the decline of the working population is shrinking even more quickly, while the number dependable elderly is rising fast. Japan, Italy, Spain and Russia is expected to loose a third of their populations in 50 years. In contrast in the USA, the 'demographic time bomb' is not as serious because of the USA population is growing by 1%, due to higher fertility rate and more immigration particularly 'brain drain' migration, (most migrant will be more educated, professional and at economic productive/child-bearing ages) allowing the USA to have a more competitive demographic structure and economy. The population size is USA is now increasing at a FASTER rate than China+many middle-income countries. (due to lower fertility rate in the latter) If income per capita is growing at a similar rate among all developed affluent society, it will be Europe and Japan where will be in decline the most in terms of their role in politics, economy and military, less so for USA, of course unless USA sees economic growth much slower than other affluent world in coming decade. As it was the case for Britain between 1930s and 1970s.

Answer 5

Chief Allies: American Consumers, Iran
Archenemies: Japan/India
$50 billion per year of foreign investment, a labor force that survives on $70 a month, has enjoyed a 9% GDP growth for 25 years….all under state controlled pseudo-capitalism, has a spiking fuel addiction, and just inked a $70 billion three-decade natural gas deal with Iran

Economy: China has an economy so robust that to keep the value of its “Yuan” in check, the People’s Bank of China has been propping up our currency by accumulating American dollars, bonds, and treasuries—about $533 billion at last count. By keeping the currency undervalued, the Chinese are telling the world, “We can provide you with low-cost goods,” Communism may be nearly dead in all but the name in China, but it survives in the form of one last taboo: the fact that the right of an individual to won agricultural land is tenuous (weak) at best.

Problem: China needs to address the fact that its farmers have missed out on the double-digit growth that has transformed urban China and turned its richest cities into some of the most dynamic in Asia.

Problem: If China decided to drop/dump its dollar reserve on the world currency market, interest rates here could skyrocket, severely damaging our stock and housing markets. However, that probably won’t happen because China needs American prosperity to continue its growth, and Americans with extra dollars love Chinese imports. It keeps the Chinese economic juggernaut rolling.

No China will no supplant the U.S. anytime soon.

Answer 6

No. No matter what fear mongering Lou Dobbs engages in the US is not in decline and the economy is growing at a fine clip thank you very much. China's economy is growing faster than that of the US, but keep in mind its economy is smaller and small changes create large gains in productivity. There are farmers that still rely on oxen to plow their fields, so if you replace them with tractors that is a huge productivity gain.

Currently, the Chinese economy is expected to be on parity with the US economy by 2045, but their population is 1.4 billion compared to our 300 million. This means that if the ratio remains about the same on per capita terms they will still be way behind the US. It won't be until the Chinese economy is more than 4.5 times that of the US that the average Chinese person can expect to have a similar living standard to the average American in economic terms.

Answer 7

I doubt that this is the case for a number of reasons. I do admit in recent times China has seen unprecedented growth due to cheap labour, yet more than adequate infrastructure (moreso than countries such as South Africa) and this has led to its increasing role in international business and international dealings in general. However, this growth will begin to steady once the economies of scale have been taken advantage of and further opportunities become more costly.

If we look at Mexico for example, with the creation of NAFTA, Mexican business and wealth grew, but as this nation began to gain a higher level of disposable income, it was less seen as a merely a location for cheap labour but as a market in its own right, therefore, other countries and their companies drew benefit for their investments into Mexico. Yet growth in Mexico has down slowed and I think this will be the same in China, only obviously on a much larger scale.

China will continue to grow, but as a competitor on the world stage, it will by no means take the place of the USA any time soon.

Another reason that this is the case is due to the social and political situation in China. This is seen as potentially far more volatile and unpredictable (although I understand many of you may feel this also goes for the US!).

So, to sum up, no.

Answer 8

YES, China's population is 1300M and USA population is 300M only, chinese are more hard working (who can argue with that?) and there's more poverty in China so that is a huge potential. The USA decline will come when other countries begin moving away from American markets and moving to European ones, when they begin switching from Dollars to Euros to other forms of currency not favorable to the US and this will be accelerated as the USA behaves more and more as the bully nation of the world, attacking and invading third world countries, this creates the mindset in people to not see the USA with good eyes (let's face it Bush work stinks). So China have everything, human resources, technoolgy, infraestructure, natural resources and a lot of dollars that don't know what to do with them, one day they will come to us with all the dollars and take California Alaska and Washington away if we don't have other ways of paying them (guns and bombs of course)

Answer 9

No, China is in the midst of an economic hyper-expansion, but is nowhere near the level of economic development of the United States. To put this statistically for simple interpretation, the United States has a per capita GDP of over $43,500 (third highest in the world). China has a per capita GDP of $6,200 (eighty-fourth highest in the world).

However, China's GDP is the world's second largest at $8.16 trillion due to their enormous population. The United States is the only nation with a larger GDP at over $13 trillion. As you can see, China needs only 1/3 of the US per capita GDP to have a larger overall GDP.

As the Chinese government further liberalizes its economy, its per capita GDP will continue to expand at a blistering pace. However, they will not soon pass the United States as the largest and most flourishing economy because of their political road blocks (still run by Communists).

Answer 10

Pax Americana ended lower than BushII. that's shown by utilizing the international huge defiance adverse to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. the subsequent milestone in this can probable be see in a lack of administration over China's sea coast (our potential to run protection stress ships like that is our own sea coast). This line of impact diminishes each and every of the time. in my opinion, i'd say that is because of decadent social and economic experiments inclusive of Reaganomics/Thatcher-regulations, NeoCon Evangelicalism, fiat overseas money, inclusion of China as a diametrically polar equipment, and a bellicose overseas coverage predicated on absurd lies (WMDs). Our popularity sucks. EDIT: no longer so certain China will surge. it could be Europe, in the adventure that they could throw off their ties to the sinking US and abolish the Euro.