Is the long business cycle still relevant?

Question

Could we expect a longer period of slower economic activity during the years to come?

Answer 1

There are too many structural shocks to think of a really long business cycle.

Things like oil shock, wars, technological leaps cannot be accounted for but do still fundamentally affect the world economy in the short and long runs.

Answer 2

It's not clear if the long business cycle (aka "the Kondratieff wave") even exists. Modern national income accounting goes back only to 1925, data potentially convertible into modern national income accounting start in 1867. Postulating existence of the 50-year long wave based on this data is not reasonable, as we may be observing three or four unrelated secular episodes...

Answer 3

If the economic/political climate is shifting is it reasonable to assume that pre-established routine and rule remains unchanged? A shift in a countries business emphasis is bound to effect the cycle it operates on. It's not that the cycle is irrelevant - we're just trying to apply it to what is essentially a different thing. And it's in these circumstances we should seek to change and improve our models.

Answer 4

There is only one business cycle, so the question should read, "Is the business cycle still relevant"? Why would there be a slow down in productivity? This is what we would have to look at.

Answer 5

nobecause different buisnesses make their money at different times of the year

Answer 6

yes - it depends on real interest rates!!!!!!!!!!!!!