"Gambler's fallacy" applies to random events - Roulette. Does it apply to non-random events like Blackjack?

Answer 1

The gambler's fallacy applies to independent random events, like coin tossing or die rolling. It's the belief that the occurrence of independent random events in the past can help you predict whether those events will occur more or less frequently than expected in the future. It's a fallacy. There's still only once chance in two that a coin will land heads-up no matter how many times it's landed tails-up recently.

Blackjack is a random game, with hidden information, but which cards will be drawn in the future is influenced by which cards have been drawn in the past. In one deck, for instance, there are only four jacks, so if a jack has already been drawn, the chance of another jack appearing before the next shuffle has decreased.

Don't count on being able to count cards in a casino, though. They shuffle together several decks and reshuffle drawn cards into the decks before the decks are exhausted.

Answer 2

It probably doesn't because like a previous answerer said the cards are drawn out from the deck and depending on what cards have been drawn the chances are better or worse for you.

I agree that the casinos keep shuffling the cards and they use large number of decks (4 to 5). However on any particular deal, the cards are not being shuffled. The dealer simply pulls cards from the top of the deck. And you can see what cards are being dealt out. Accordingly you can "card count" and arguably, increase your chances of winning. Actually I should correct myself and say that even the next deal is not so random, since the dealer is still pulling cards from the top of the deck. The older cards get inserted into the deck but not at the top. So for quite a few deals card counting can actually be in your favor.

However, if you play long enough then it becomes random. I don't know if there is another example to explain this. You could say it is non-random in a local way but random in a global way. You could play a little while and do well. Walk away, come back again, play again... assuming you don't retain memory of your last game, and don't try to associate the previous play with the next then the individual plays are non-random. However, if you sit at a table for too long and keep playing then the global view becomes more prevalent and it becomes random.

Answer 3

I believe gambler's fallacy refers to defects in random generators... such as dice... dice cannot be made perfect, therefore one side will fall downward more often than the others given enough throws of the die... or.. perhaps a roulette wheel... has a defect in one of the dividers so the ball falls over it to the next number more easily than any other number.. so over a large number of spins.. the ball falls more often into that second number.

this does NOT apply to any card game with a relatively low number of cards (10 decks is still a low number when compared to large numbers)... because if one card is missing.. the odds of getting that card are lower ALWAYS... say the Ace of spades in a 5 deck shoe... if the first card you get is an Ace of spades... then the possibility of getting another Ace of spades is much lower (5/260 for the one you got, 4/259 for another one)... so there is no defect to be "discovered"

Answer 4

No it doesnt.

The coin tosses are random events with known probability. We know that the probability will still be 50/50 regardless of past events.

The cards are different. The probability of a certain outcome changes as the game progresses, until the next reshuffle.

That is the past events, say four aces being dealt out (in a one pack game), will affect the future probability. In this case, of course, no aces will be dealt on the next hand unless someone is cheating.

Answer 5

No. In blackjack the previous cards alter the odds of winning with a particular hand. In practice it is hard to take advantage of this because casionos use shoes with more than one deck in them. However, a group of math students did develop a counting system that tipped the odds of winning in your favour and used it to successfully "beat the system".

Casinos have now made the use of counting systems illegal and watch tables to look for signs of their use.

Answer 6

The fact of a previous hit does change the odds in a card game, in a six card stack one queen of spades out means a lower chance of another so the odds to shift as cards are played.

Answer 7

Yes. It's still random because you don't know what cards are where. Unless you have really quick vision...

Answer 8

Yes.

Answer 9

Yes, no event is totally deterministic.

Answer 10

absolutely!