The Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia on Tuesday, 6th June 2006, held a Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) to evaluate monetary, economic and banking development and to decide future monetary policy stance. In May 2006, pressure to macroeconomic stability increased, mainly triggered by foreign portfolio adjustment as a response to the possibility of continuing global tight monetary policy, especially by US Federal Reserve. In Indonesia, such foreign behavior is reflected in significant amount of capital outflow which resulting in a significant pressure to the Rupiah exchange rate. Rupiah exchange rate that had shown strengthening trend in the previous period, depreciated as much as 5.09% (m-t-m) in May 2006.
The assessment result has shown that such development has not given significant pressure to the inflation yet. Monthly inflation increase in May 2006 was mainly contributed by seasonal factors as reflected in the increase of volatile foods inflation after the harvest season. CPI inflation recorded as much as 0.37% (m-t-m) or 15.60% (y-o-y).
From banking side, some indicators have shown that banking performance improved. Up until May 2006, banking sector in general could still mitigate the existing business risk. This was reflected in the decreasing trend of non-performing loans and increasing credit expansion. After experiencing an increase around Rp.7 trillion in March 2006, credit amount in April 2006 increased as much as Rp.10.7 trillion. Along with this credit increment, NPL ratio declined from 9.4% (gross) in March to 9.2% at the end of April 2006.
Looking forward, if there is no substantial shock, CPI inflation in 2006 and 2007 is predicted to reach the target of 8±1% and 6±1% (yoy). Nevertheless, there are potential external and internal risks that should be aware of, which may increase pressure to the exchange rate and CPI inflation in 2006 and 2007. External risks are mainly related to the high global oil price, uncertainty of Fed Fund interest rate projection and global monetary tightening policy. Meanwhile, the internal risk mainly comes from inflation pressure resulting from administered price in accordance with the government plan to increase base price of paddy rice and transportation tariff especially economic class train tickets.
Considering the above mentioned developments, The Board of Governors Meeting on Tuesday, 6 June 2006, has decided to maintain the level of BI Rate at 12.50%. Going forward, if the result of comprehensive assessment to economic prospect shows that those risks have diminished, the policy to further lower the interest rate can be continued.
2006-06-22 00:46:51
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answer #1
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answered by Halle 4
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