why is it difficult to predict a hurricane's path?

Question

which 1 of these following choices only?
the eye of the hurricane causes the hurricane's path to fluctuate or
hurricane paths never follow a reguar pattern or
a hurricane is affected by local conditions which make it difficult to predict the path or
no one can predict the weather?

which choice as stated?

Answer 1

Hurricane is affected by local conditions and it's diffiult to predict the path. However, we can see what has been typically the result based on various conditions of both the current and past similar hurricanes, and try to use that information to make an educated guess. With computer technology advancing, we have more information to fine tune the guesses and make them more accurate. But we'll never be able to 100% predict the weather or people's reaction to it.

Answer 2

Nature is a chaotic system which has many MANY variables in it that make it difficult to predict movements of any weather system. For instance, the water in one area of the Gulf might be a different temperature than in another area of the Gulf. The power of the hurricane is created through water temperature so this little difference can make the hurricane change paths, stall, strengthen, or some other unpredictable change.

Meteorologists (the real ones, not the ones on the news) have gotten much better lately predicting paths of hurricanes. Taking into account more and more variables such as water temperature, other weather systems, jet stream strength, etc, meteorologists look at how these variables have affected weather systems in the past and then can use those historic records to predict how new storms will move. The more storms that are encountered and entered in the record, the more variables that are tracked, the better the prediction will be.

For Katrina and Rita last year, there was plenty of warning. It was inaction that caused the disaster.

I believe though that the Navy actually has the most accurate prediction model of all the systems to predict hurricane movement.

Answer 3

It's a little hard because the wind paths can change dramatically in a short time, because in the Gulf area is where 2 air currents meet, going different directions. This makes the hurricane turn in a circle, you know, like a U turn? And the currents make it hard to predict because they change. But generally, hurricanes are a LOT easier to predict than tornadoes.

Tornadoes barely give a 15 MINUTE warning. It is VERy hard to predict them, and that is what's so dangerous about them. There are practically no signs, you have to just pick an area, and stay there to watch for any signs of wind changing, air being sucked up...

If your really interested in tornadoes/hurricanes, check out a NOVA video from the library or something.

Answer 4

I think the second one is the best of the choices - hurricane paths never follow a reguar pattern.

Yet they sometimes do, and the intesity forecast is typically much more difficult than the track forecast.

Answer 5

It is easy to predict their paths, those Katrina people had six days notice. I can easily predict another hurricane will hit a southern state this summer.

Your second guess is closest to the truth.

Answer 6

POSTED BY: "DATABIT42"

-----"Meteorologists (the real ones, not the ones on the news)..."-----

We are not just "the weather man."

We ARE meteorologists!!! We take the SAME classes they do, just chose a different career path.

So often meteorologists with the National Weather Service are "glorified".... and we are "kicked to the curb"..... and what we say is discarded.

-By the Way-
FYI: "We" are called "On-Air Meteorologists."


Sorry if I got a little carried away....

Weather_Wise911

Answer 7

hurricanes will do what they want to do.
The water temperature has something to do with the path it takes

Answer 8

its not