2006-06-20 00:39:01 · 7 answers · asked by Craig G 2 in Sports ➔ Baseball
All right, I'm not going to look at what he has done so far this season.... because it's just easier to figure out that way.
He's played in 2125 games, which would amount to about 14 seasons if he were to play 155 games each year. He's actually in his 18th season, so you got to figure he's basically missed three years of playing time (remember, I'm not counting this season, so he's played 17 complete seasons).
His home run total coming into the season was 536, which over 14 seasons of playing time averages out to 38 home runs per year. If you take that average over the three seasons that he missed, it would come out to 114. So, theoretically, he should have been at about 650 coming into this season, which with his 12 so far this year would put him at 662, and on pace for about 688 by the end of this season.
However, he was at 398 before coming to Cincinnati. In his last four years in Seattle, he was averaging 52 per season. He's in Cincy for his 7th season this year. If he doesn't get injured and even averages 45 HR/season, he'd be looking at 713 at the end of this season.
As if this isn't way too much already, another way of looking at it -
He has averaged 3.7 AB/G, and a 14.68 HRR (home run ratio - the number of AB's between each HR). If he played 155 games per season, he would have 2635 games, and 9750 AB's, which would translate into 664 HR's at the beginning of this season, and 703 at the end of this season.
2006-06-20 02:04:42 · answer #1 · answered by Swish 3 · 5⤊ 1⤋
In '97- '99 with Seattle, he hit 49, 56, 56 and 48 respectively. So hitting averaging 52 a year seems reasonable. If over the past six years ('00- '05) he had averaged 52 a year, that would be 312 in those years. In reality, he hit 138 homers in that time period, a difference of 174 home runs. Those 174 homers would have put him at 710 home runs in the beginning of the year, and setting his sights on Hammerin' Hank around the end of July.
2006-06-20 08:01:39 · answer #2 · answered by Anon28 4 · 0⤊ 0⤋
But keep in mind that if Ted Williams had not missed 5+ years in his prime due to fighting in WW2 and Korea, then he would have all the major batting records with the possible exception of the all time hit record. He finished with 521 hrs and if he had those 5 years back, 40 a year would have been a walk in the park for him considering he hit 29 with 72 rbis and a .316 average at age 42.
2006-06-20 05:36:13 · answer #3 · answered by michael s 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋
Jr's 162 game hr average for his career is 41... that is when you take all the games he's played and all the home runs he's hit and average them out over a full season (162 games) he averages 41 home runs per season. At that rate, he should have had 697 homers going into this season. At this point I doubt he can make a run at any of the records, but he was amazing for the first 10 years of his career.
2006-06-20 01:53:19 · answer #4 · answered by In the light 3 · 0⤊ 0⤋
I'd guess somewhere around 660.
He wouldn't have broken Babe Ruth's record nor Hank Aaron's record unless he stayed in the league till 2009.
Years between 1995 and 2005 that had less than 40 HRs I added whatever was the difference to guesstimate what he probably would have had if he stayed healthy (ie 1995 he actually hit 17 HRs, I added 23 to get up to about average for him at the time).
Pretty amazing guy actually.
2006-06-20 00:53:45 · answer #5 · answered by steveb106 5 · 0⤊ 0⤋
650 easily
2006-06-20 10:47:30 · answer #6 · answered by phillip c 2 · 0⤊ 0⤋
let's just say that we'd be seeing his highlights next to the "chasing aaron" segment of sportscenter rather that the steroid king bonds.
2006-06-20 18:03:31 · answer #7 · answered by Anonymous · 0⤊ 0⤋