Do you think Yellowstone will erupt in our times?

Question

I've read that it's classed as high risk, and a supervolcano. And that hundreds of thousands of years ago, there were such massive blasts of ash from its explosions that they covered about half of what is now the contiguous United States. Another explosion could send the world into darkness and kill millions. Likely? Any sort of speculation, scholarly or otherwise, is welcome. ;)

Answer 1

Whilst scientists know quite a bit from studying active volcanoes and eruptions there can only be supposition about supervolcanoes.

There are changes occuring at Yellowstone. The gyser time periods have changed slightly, the mud volcanoe has quietened and lots of other minor things that seem not to have a great impact. Minor tremors continue to be seen as minor. Neverthelless these are all changes and changes show that the volcanoe continues to evolve.

Yellowstone has produced smaller eruptions and the geology is recorded but the term super volcanoe itself indicates that some eruptions have been so huge they have taken most of the previous history with it.

The real question for scientists is what sparks a supervolcanoe into activity and is it a gradual process or suddenly cataclysmic?
The only answer has to be don't know and then a best guess.

We can hope though that as the earth is gradually cooling and becoming slowly more stable the likelihood of a really big bang may ease.

Answer 2

Do I think it will? Yes. "Soon" could be decades - or more - in the realm of things though. If it does go like before it will change much for the US and when the other countries no longer have the US benefits perhaps the perspective of the US also. I am moving towards self suffiency because in ANY disaster I do not think the government can or will be able to handle the volume of problems that will happen in a natural disaster. It is time people learned to be prepared and take responsibility for themselves and their family without *expecting* help. JMO I'm not *afraid* of it but I do think there is a series of disasters lurking.
There are natural phenomenon that have not happened for so long we think it's abnormal when it eventually will happen again or forget that it ever did. One of the biggest fault lines in the US runs across Missouri - much to the dismay of Californians moving to get away from earthquakes. But that fault line hasn't done anything for so long people forget it's there.
There was an earthquake over a century ago severe enough to for a time make the Mississippi river run north for a time...that is fact. The fault has rumbled as recently as a few years ago.
The next hurricane to hit NY will make people forget about, in comparison, New Orleans.

Answer 3

What one has to realize when forcasting volcanos is the time frame. Yes, the recurrance interval for Yellowstone is 600,000 years. But it's not clockwork. It's an average built off of only three numbers. The standard deviation is huge. So while the probability of it erupting in the next 30,000 years is good, keep in mind, that humans have only been around about 6,000 years(arguably). So, it's hard to comprehend how long geologic timespans are. The chance of it happening in the next 60 years? About as close to zero as it gets.

Answer 4

The scientist in Yellowstone have considered this, and have concluded that it will not be in the next 100 years, the reason being? there is not enough pressure yet built up under the area to trigger the massive volcanic eruption. Although some studies tend to lead scientists to think otherwise.

Answer 5

Scientists have revealed that Yellowstone Park has been on a regular eruption cycle of 600,000 years. The last eruption was 640,000 years ago…so it looks like we are overdue for one.

Answer 6

I am safe... I live in Australia... any such blast would not effect the southern hemisphere very much because the cloud would primarily cover the northern hemisphere (winds and such).

However... our exports to China might be affected... damn.

Answer 7

No.....very unlikely.