What are the odds we are who we are, when we are?

Question

If you take in to account the number of sperm manufactured, only one gets in the egg. Every sperm and egg combination makes a completely different being. Now factor in all of the decisions made that led to the fertilization, combined with the odds that led to those decisions. Compounded by the split-second timing of everyday decision making (right or left? short or tall? brunette or blond? etc.) Plus, the series of events that created the universe, can the number even be calculated, and does that number exceed the laws of randomness, proving that it could not have happened ANY other way?

Answer 1

The probability is zero if u take into account everything and everything is random. The previous sentence simply means, given no information AT ALL, u cannot guess anything.

Probability is not the law that governs the universe. It's one of the models that describes some aspects of this universe.... uncertainty. Incomplete information.

It's a philosophical thing to argue if information can ever be complete. Can uncertainty be completely removed? Let's skip this.

The reason u have to estimate the probabilities is because u have no know model to predict which sperm would reach the egg. no model to predict when, why, etc, of why ppl want sex. No model to predict decisions. u have no model to describe about a lot of things. Even with models, there r so many variables, the probability would be very very small if u wanna take into account EVERYTHING.

For example, I said to u, pick any positive integer. Can I predict what u will pick? take 0 to be positive integer, your possible choices are, 0,1,2,3,4,5,....9999999999999999999999999..... infinitely many choices. So, without much info about anything, the probability of any choice is 0. But, i know u r a human. You probably won't pick a number that require u 1 month to write it down, or recite it to me. Maybe some psychologists did research and found out people love 3 digit numbers, or people love the number 9, or whatever. These can all be utilised to form opinions of probabilities.

So, probability is subjective. The probability distribution of a certain event depends on the assessor's information. What's the probability of the coin landing on its head? The ideal case is when we assume the coin is perfect and ignoring other events. Say, the coin roll off under the couch and u cannot observe it... this throw would not be counted, etc. This probability is definitely different if I know the coin is biased. Or I take into account the various events that could forbid me from observing the results, say, a comet crash into my roof, destroying everything, including the coin, etc etc. there are infinitely many possibilities and taking these into account, these all affect the probability.

So, there is no violation or anything. Probability is only meaningful when they r defined properly... u lay out the Sample Space, define the subset in suitable form(the sigma field), define some mapping from this field to the real number field(the random variable X), construct some measure on them(probability measure).

So, for your question... it all depends on how much u know about the.. everything. if u have knowledge of everything perfectly, u can then say for sure whether an event will 100% happen, or 100% not happen. And if u know nothing at all, u cannot be sure of ANYTHING because there are infinite kind of events that can happen and each with equal probability of infinitely small. Even if u know some information, and u know certain event are more likely than other, if u have infinite events to consider, the probability can approach 0 too. So, with infinite possibilities, only with infinitely precise information can u access the probability of events.

** information is gained. A few hours ago, my information is different. If someone asked me if u will ask this question, all I can say is the probability based upon my knowledge and my opinions, etc then. But a few minutes ago, I gained information that u wrote this question. With that information, my assessment of the probability of this event happening is 100%(kinda like cheating, i know LOL). So, if u want less unpredicted accident happening to u, start KNOWING more.

Answer 2

Millions of Sperm must be manufactured so at least one sperm makes it to the egg(s). There are internal defenses in the vagina that take every stride to prevent infection.

Each head of the Sperm contains DNA from the father and each egg contains DNA from the mother. Each DNA contains data for the hair color, eye color, height, body type, skin tone, etc. and the selection process isn't 100% random. If both parents have brown eyes and brown hair, it is safe to assume that the child will also reflect these features.

Everything in life is a random selection process.

If you're attempting to calculate the the actual number, everything has to be calculated, which is an improbable factor. However there is the doppelganger theory that there is an absolute identical twin some where in the world, which has yet to be actually proven.

Given the extent of items that have to be calculated, there is no other way that it can happen.

Answer 3

If the experiment came out differently, how would you know the difference? In other words, what is so special about the way you are now (or the way I am now) compared to any other way we could have been? I'm just thankful I'm healthy and able to provide for my family. It doesn't really matter whether I'm bald, or white, or short.

I have one problem with something you ask at the end of your question: "can the number even be calculated, and does that number exceed the laws of randomness, proving that it could not have happened ANY other way?"

It doesn't make sense to suggest that a number could "exceed the laws of randomness." One of your other responders gave a nice lengthy explanation of the limitations of probability theory, but within the laws of probability, no number is too small or too great to be meaningful. In any case, it is even more illogical to suggest that the probability is so small that it could NOT have happened any other way. Rather, I'd say that it COULD have happened in any countless number of ways, and we would live to deal with it the way it came out, regardless. We wouldn't know the difference one way or the other.

Surely if you're dealt a bad hand--say a genetic disorder of some kind--you'd know it was an unfortunate turn of events. It wouldn't be fair. But it certainly COULD have turned out differently. There doesn't necessarily have to be a reason that life comes out the way it does.

Some people don't like uncertainty and turn to religion to fill in the gaps, and that's okay. That works. But don't use tortured logic to reach a conclusion that you want to believe. Just take it as a matter of faith, if that's what you need to do.

Answer 4

Gifen u do not know someone was born, what is the probability he will be born? This probability is different from 'what's the probability he will be born given u know that he is born'. The formal does not equal the latter. The latter probability is 1. Even if u are born, as long as I am not aware of this absolute truth, I'd assign a less than 1 probability to this event. That does not mean my probability is WRONG. Probability has to be assign correctly, depending on conditions. There are so many misunderstanding about probability here. Read Lawrence L's reply as his/hers is closest to the truth so far. As for Triple M's, her interesting argument is similar to the question "how does a fair coin know how many times it had turned head or tail and hence, in the long run, it would turn head and tail with equal proportion?" It's a valid philosophical question but she is stating the obvious. In QM, as in anything in;life with uncertainty, before something happen, all u can say is how likely the thing will happen a certain way. After it happens, the probability wave collapse into reality and there is only one reality. If u look at thing retrospectively, everything is known as it has happened and u have observed it and there is no uncertainty and hence no need for probability. Probability is only meaningful when u look at something with uncertainty. "The probability of something happening is 1" and "The probability of something happening is 1 because it has happened" are 2 completely different thing.

Answer 5

There is a 1 in 1 chance that you were going to be you because God wants it that way.... Believe what you want about science and evolution blah blah blah..... do you really think a complex being such as ourselves came about by mistake? Yeah right, have you ever reached into the frig and thrown anything you could grab into a bowl and come up with a delicious meal? Could a tornado run through a junk yard and come up with a 55 chevy?

No!!! and random chemical combinations from sludge could not come up with this complex walking talking thinking being either...

God wanted you here right now and that is why you exist in the year 2006!!!! 1 to 1 chance...

Answer 6

I hate to answer a question with another question, but why even question this process?

Each of us is unique. Even identical twins are different in many ways. We should be joyful that we are who and what we are. It really doesn't matter all that much in the grand scheme of things how we came to be who we are.

What we should ask is whether our existence will leave the world better or worse than it would have been had we not ever existed. Did we make others happy? Did we comfort children? Did we love and were we loved?

The odds that we can answer yes to this question are relatively good for most of us. We should be satisfied with that.

Answer 7

you have to look at the number of straight men and straight women in the world that are all of birth giving age and with the proper reproductive organs...perhaps you can find this number with a good search of the internet. then you have to look at the average amount of semen produced by those men and figure the average number of sperms being produced at any given moment. decide that one moment in time..perhaps the moment you were conceived. figure the number of women who were in the point of their cycle which would allow them to achieve pregnancy at that moment. use those figures to decide the odds of sperm inpregnating an egg if at that point in time all the men and women were having sex. then you would have to decide the number of couples who were actually having sex at that moment and compare that to the odds of being impregnated. that would give you the odds of you being you which would be a rather high number. fortunatly for you people have been making babies for so long that of course the odds would come out that created you. anything given enough time and tries will eventually hit every possible combination. perhaps the real question would be how long would it take for another exact copy of you to be produced?

Answer 8

The probability is one, because it DID happen this way.

And even if it COULD have happened any other way, we would still have to argue that it DID happen this way because WE are who we are WHEN we are.

This question is like asking not only about whether Schrodinger's cat is alive or dead before he is let out of the box, but also if he was an existentialist.

Hey, I guess Schrodinger might have done okay in Hollywood!

He neither killed nor not-killed a dog in his non-experiment, but a not-dog.

I know, needs work, Ruff! Ruff!

Answer 9

Well, that supports the popular saying that "there is only one you." There is a theory (called determinism, i think) that nothing is random, and we could predict every occurrance if we knew enough of the factors. The unfortunate conclusion this leads to is that we don't actually make decisions, since we were predetermined to do everything we do, and hence we have no free will.

Answer 10

Jen:
Unfortunately, the theory of determinism, popular after Newton devised his mechanics, has been absolutely being destroyed by modern quantum mechanics, which predicts only a probability, not a certainty, even when an absolute knowledge is had about our present state.