In 10 years the markets will likely start to crash. No kidding. This is due to the 1974 ERISA act which transferred the onus of retirement from companies through defined benefit programs such as pensions to defined contribution programs such as 401(k). The issue though is that while distributions can be taken from a 401(k) at age 59.5, distributions are REQUIRED to be taken from age 70.5. The first of the baby boomer generation will be turning 70.5 around 2016 meaning they will be required to start selling holdings in their 401(k) plans to meet this requirement. As more baby boomers hit that age, more will have to sell. All of this selling without buying stepping in will cause the market to flop. But wait...it gets worse.
Most baby boomers are not properly prepared for retirement anyway. Some think they will be because of the money they have in their 401(k) plan except as the stock market drops, the value of their holdings in the plan drops and may no longer be enough to sustain them in retirement. As a result, they will find they have to cut back on many of the things they were used to for their lives like new cars, dining out, vacations and designer clothes. Cutting back on all these things will cut into all of those businesses resulting in slowing sales and profit growth causing their stocks to go down even more.
Now if all of that sounds fun (and unfortunately very likely), then lets factor in what happens when the US government runs up the deficit to try and maintain entitlement spending programs like Medicare and Social Security which are trillion dollar liabilities. Medicare makes Social Security look like a small problem. The point is that nearly all of the tax collected by the IRS goes to pay the debt on the deficit, that's just sad. So as our debt runs up, interest rates have to rise in order to continue to attract foreign capital to our debt to finance our spending. Rising interest rates again will slow the economy making it harder for business to expand and borrow for capital spending and as such again the stock markets will plumet.
Still having fun? How about this... Paper money used to be certificates that represented the equivalent value of gold. This was called the gold standard. Basically it meant that paper money had value, the value of gold that backed it up. Under Nixon the US went off the gold standard and paper money became basically worthless. Now it doesn't represent anything. Inflation eats away at a dollar to the extent that between that and taxes, people who put their money in the bank and save are actually losing money. Don't believe me? Check this out. If you're getting 4.5% in your savings account and inflation is currently coming in at about 4.0% for 2006. So you're making .5% right? Wrong. Don't forget that you have to pay taxes on interest income of the 4.5% which will amount to roughly 1.5% (about 30% tax rate). So between inflation and taxes, you're actually losing 1% per year. Of course this goes on assumptions of inflation rate (which could go higher or a little lower) and savings rate (which current is running around 4.5%) but the point is that all the people saving will in the next 10-15 years find that their money is worth a lot less than when they put it in the bank. This again will cause hardship for people.
I hate to have the bad attitude here, I hope this stuff doesn't come to pass but we're on the train and this is where the track is headed. Hopefully we'll have the sense to stop the train before we get to that point, but its unlikely.
2006-06-14 15:40:45
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answer #1
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answered by Anonymous
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More technology for sure. People will be dependant on...technology! People will become less into nature and such and more into the digital world.
There will be a greater diversity in music and arts alhough there will be less painters that have a natural born talent for arts & stuff and more people who take lessons.
Nuclear wars & just wars galore. Kids will learn things younger and younger....they will probably be more in-tune with TV, but maybe not in the best way.
Perhaps another version of music for a new age of rebellious teens? ;) Money will make the world go 'round more so than love (as if it doesn't already).
Kids will get smarter younger. Reality TV shows will get less and less reality based to entertain people.
Ozone layer will die.....eventually. Then someday we'll live on some other planet that's doomed to be swalled and/or destroyed by something else.
And of course crime will grow or lessen, depending on what is going on in the world with money for certain countries.
But don't trust me (completely), the world wil go insane with or without reminders of the impending doom -- I mean future. (I think I just gave a description on how the world will end, not considering Revelations)
Boy, that was depressing.
2006-06-14 22:11:31
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answer #2
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answered by »»» ĢẈΣNLYǸ ☆ ★ ☆ ★ ☆ ★ 1
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