how likely is likely?

Question

every time i roll my die, there is a one in six chance i will get any given number.

but is this probability true?

have there been any really long term research done?

if i roll for an hour and count the results, will any number stand out more?

if i roll for years?

dice might be bias, what about random number generators.

do the real world results match the probability?

Answer 1

In Theory, it is 1/6.

In Practice, the dice will have some bias.

If you observe the dice that has its numbers carved out, you will noticed that the number 1 is a bigger circle and the number 6 has smaller circles hopefully to remove the same amount of material from the dice so that the weight is evenly distributed and the center of gravity is maintained at the true center of the dice.

Furthermore, the table on which the dice roll may be biased as well, uneven surface, minute sharp points, etc. Also, your hand has sweat and different amount of stickiness when you release the dice. The dice may also experience uneven wear and tear with usage. You can go on and probe all the "real" world imperfections and these may add up to skew the probablities of the dice and bias the results.

So how likely is likely?

In the real world, it is unlikely to be as likely as you would likely like it to be.

Answer 2

The probability is true but the question asked is whether the real world would reflect this probability and the answer to that is yes. Some minor defect in the die would skew the numbers in some way if a horrendous number of trials were performed. The other question about random number generators is also interesting because I do not think that a true randomness exists anywhere in nature. Patterns always emerge even from the most chaotic systems. The lesson is that chaos does not rule; look to pattern and complexity, they are the best paradigms for understanding the nature of the universe

Answer 3

The answers:

Yeah, you roll a die enough, and it is balanced, you will get around 1/6 of each possible number.

Random number generators are a bit trickier, they are not really random. They are based on clock times in milliseconds usually, so they can be gamed.

The trick to randomness is making sure it is random. Case in point: On Let's make a deal, there is a game where there are three doors. One has a prize, the other two have junk. You picked one, they opened up a different one to show you junk.

Then you got the offer to keep your door, or take the other unopened one. I have had people, intelligent people, who never got the point of what I am saying next...

If you took the other door, you had a 2/3 chance of getting the prize. If you kept the one you started with, you had a 1/3. Send me an e-mail if you want the reasoning for it.

-Dio

Answer 4

What probability means is that, if you rolled your die an infinite amount of times, you will get a 6 exactly 1/6 of the time, and the same for all the other digits.

Research has indeed been done, and the above result holds by a theorem: the strong law of large numbers, which asserts that, as your number of tosses approaches infinity, the deviation of the frequencies of 1, 2, 3 etc from 1/6 will become smaller and smaller.

Answer 5

You are right. In real world, we can't get absolute perfect dice. So the probability of getting a given number may be a bit less than 1/6 or more than 1/6.

It may be like in years your will get 10 more 5s. So it doesn't matter much in practical scenarios.

Take the example of child being a male or female. It is just probability that determines it. No external factors can affect it.

Answer 6

yes it is absolutely true the real world may not match the probability but it is the prediction of the future happenings which can be examined with the use of mathematics ...there is a possibility that it fails some point of time

Answer 7

There is no such thing as truly random. Everything is based on some non-random event.

As far as, what is likely, its anything greater than 50% chance but less than 100%. If I were to give it a percentage, it would be 80%.

Answer 8

dude , are you crazy, you are ready to roll a dice for a year, have you lost allyour brains, this is the dumbest question ever to be asked. stop worrying yourself with all these stupid questions and, for christ's sake, lie that die alone

Answer 9

dude, what does it really matter...?

Answer 10

yep.