How soon until we deplete our oil resources. If possible please list a reference.?

Question

My old geology professor really put a scare into the class and was wondering what any other experts might have to say. Your opinion is greatly appreciated.

Answer 1

It depends on who you ask. In the United States it depends on whether you are a Republican or a democrat, a neo-conservative or a liberal. Both parties are irrelevant as this is a scientific question.
If you listen to UK based Colin Campbell, oil will peak around 2016. Keep in mind that you must consider middle east oil producers, and countries outside of the middle east, which are expected to peak a lot sooner. However, the US Geological Survey paints an extremely Rosy picture, with oil production most likely to peak around 2040. I would say it has a built in optimism since it doesn't factor in geopolitical events. It also depends on the amount of conservation and alternative energy sources being developed and utilized by the world. This will also effect production. You can find this data in the June 2004 issue of the National Geographic Magazine. US president George Bush plans to stay in iraq until 2016. Coincidence?

Answer 2

My understanding is that there is no real shortage of oil. However, existing supplies of oil will become more and more difficult to access, and the quality may be lower, meaning that it will be more expensive to refine.

Over time, the price of oil will become more expensive, and eventually, oil will no longer be the cheapest form of energy (that's why we use it!) As that happens, other forms of energy will become more reasonable.

Many oil deposits in the US are artificially "impossible" simply because we refuse to drill in areas of Alaska, and off our coasts. We pay dollars for that decision for every gallon of gas. The environmentalists don't care - they want manufacturing to be expensive, energy to be expensive, so people have trouble making a living, and moving around. They would prefer you not use your computer right now, because the electricity is "destroying the earth".

As an aside - the real effect of carbon emissions on the environment is not the "slam-dunk" story of despair that you may be hearing. In reality, global warming is an scientifically undecided conclusion - it's been fewer than twenty years since the "New Ice Age" was standard thought. Bottom line is - we don't really know, and we're probably fine. And that doesn't sell newspapers.

You will hear stories of the ol' bad oil company finding a new well, and capping it, saying "Don't open this until crude oil is $100 a barrell!" That's not because oil companies are evil, it's because they discovered an inefficient, difficult well, that ain't worth the effort unless it pays REALLY well.

Answer 3

When I was young ( 10-12 years old, now I'm 51), in our - now, ex-comunist country, Bulgaria, we taught in scool, that there is crude oil maximum for 20 years, coal - for 60 years. Nowadays, these frontiers are nearly so far away in the future... But the prices of energy are (in our country) nearly 10 times higher. The battle for oil is takeing human lifes every day. So we must not wait until the end of ages... Now is the great time to discover new fuels and recoursces.

Answer 4

Get through all the political rantings and random America/bush bashing, and you'll find the scientific community (which actually rarely makes political comments which is telling about those who actually do make them) has various estimates on when we will deplete our resources. Every calculation is different as one must decide whether certain oil reserves are viable or not, whether or not demand will increase and how quickly, and other variables such as those.

Answer 5

Up to about 50 years from now or thereabouts.. All depends how hungry these developing nations of China and India gobble it up.
Personally it could not happen sooner... It would end the power of the oil companies and create a lot more peace in the middle east.

Also. .no fossil fuels burning has to be better for the environment.

Answer 6

We will probably never deplete them as "Necessity is the Mother of Invention". We will come up with alternative fuels and, then, the Middle Eastern Countries will be begging us to buy from them! but, don't worry, Al Gore will still be telling us the sky is falling.

Answer 7

about 30 to 40 years acually if your worried about it don't the depletion of our resources urges scientists to work on finding a cheaper less damaging resource

Answer 8

by 10 yrs 4rm now or even sooner......provided substitute methods r not developed