Speculate: Are we headed to recession?

Question

Unemployment is rising, inflation is up, interest rates are sky high and the stock market is dropping like a rock. Is the bear ready to awaken?

Answer 1

Actually lagging indicators aren't as bad as you think. The unemployment rate has been steady at or below 5% for some time now, T-bond rates around 5% are high compared to a year ago but moderate in any historical context, and core inflation is up but not dramatically, at least not yet.

I don't think we're headed into a plain old recession like in 1990. My speculation is the gross mismanagement of US finances will build into some crisis with highly unpredictable results, like maybe a collapse in the dollar. A perceived crisis would clobber the stock market, but not necessarily in a long bear market like 2000-2003.